SEALED · BOOSTER BOX ID ab6d491b…
VERDICT
NEUTRAL Coin flip.
EV RATIO · MEDIAN ÷ MARKET SCALE 50%—150%
—%
100%
BOX PRICE — TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $107.73 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE — / — box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -3.0%
30D -5.1%
90D -7.7%
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
WHAT YOU'LL ACTUALLY OPEN
Half of all boxes open between $82.12 and $137.70.
One in four cracks below $82.12. One in four clears $137.70.
VOLATILITY · OUTCOME SPREAD
±26%
σ ≈ $41
LOW $82
1-in-4 below TYPICAL $108
median crack HIGH $138
1-in-4 above ANATOMY What's in the box
1 DISPLAY = 36 PACKS
×1
↑ one pack 17 slots per pack
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
9
Common
3
Uncommon
1
Rare or Mythic 1 per pack
2
Wildcard Any rarity or treatment
1
Traditional Foil Any rarity, foil
1
Basic
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
46%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $106.89 95%
Commons & Uncommons $4.37 4%
Bonus Sheet $0.88 1%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
MIN CARD VALUE
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX NEUTRAL
JOURNEY INTO NYX · BOOSTER BOX
—%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $107.73 · Box Price — 7D -3.0%
30D -5.1%
90D -7.7%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share today's read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
Daily snapshots.