SEALED · COMMANDER DECK ID 617818e3…
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-07-19 · 154 DAYS TRACKED
FAVORED Slight crack.
EV RATIO · MEDIAN ÷ MARKET SCALE 50%—150%
107.2% +$3.74 vs box · median EV minus market
100%
DECK PRICE $51.83 TCGplayer market
SINGLES VALUE $55.57 sum of deck singles
ALL-TIME RANGE $86 / $47 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 23 current streak
TCGplayerBuy · $51.83 → Card Kingdom↗ Affiliate links — a few cents support the data. How we make money.
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -5.5%
30D +6.2%
90D —
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 23 days — it first crossed on 2026-06-19.
Every copy of this deck contains the same cards, worth $55.57 in singles
against a sealed price of $51.83.
No pull-rate variance — the $3.74 edge is guaranteed if you buy to break the deck for parts, before fees and the value of playing it intact.
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
46%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
VALUE BY RARITY Where the deck's value sits
Rare / Mythic $39.01 70%
Commons & Uncommons $14.41 26%
Lands $2.15 4%
Wildcard / Treatment $0.00 0%
Bonus Sheet $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY RARITY Most valuable cards in the deck
MIN CARD VALUE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | $51.83 | $45.00 | $64.99 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | $51.90 | $45.00 | $64.99 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | $52.16 | $45.00 | $64.99 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | $52.34 | $45.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | $52.45 | $45.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | $52.45 | $45.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | $52.29 | $45.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | $51.83 | $45.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | $50.93 | $45.01 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | $50.85 | $45.01 | $66.93 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | $50.63 | $47.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | $50.56 | $47.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | $50.59 | $47.00 | $66.66 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | $49.95 | $47.00 | $67.21 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | $51.23 | $43.67 | $66.66 | $130.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | $51.34 | $43.67 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | $51.44 | $42.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | $51.51 | $42.00 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | $51.20 | $43.67 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | $51.27 | $43.67 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | $51.88 | $43.67 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | $51.48 | $43.67 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-23 | $51.67 | $47.96 | $66.66 | $130.00 |
| 2026-06-20 | $51.97 | $39.71 | $65.00 | $120.00 |
| 2026-06-19 | $52.03 | $39.71 | $64.99 | $120.00 |
| 2026-06-18 | $52.17 | $39.71 | $65.00 | $120.00 |
| 2026-06-17 | $52.54 | $47.74 | $65.00 | $120.00 |
| 2026-06-16 | $52.75 | $47.74 | $65.00 | $120.00 |
| 2026-06-14 | $52.97 | $47.74 | $65.00 | $120.00 |
| 2026-06-13 | $53.63 | $47.74 | $65.00 | $130.00 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-07-19 FAVORED
SECRETS OF STRIXHAVEN COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
107.2%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $55.57 · Box Price $51.83 7D -5.5%
30D +6.2%
90D —
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-07-19 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
154 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-07-19.