SEALED · BOOSTER BOX ID 3ad74447…
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-07-19 · 370 DAYS TRACKED
CRACK Open it.
EV RATIO · MEDIAN ÷ MARKET SCALE 50%—150%
115.8% +$158.66 vs box · median EV minus market
100%
BOX PRICE $1,005.01 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $1,163.67 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $1,034 / $688 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 54 current streak
TCGplayerBuy · $1,005.01 → Card Kingdom↗ Affiliate links — a few cents support the data. How we make money.
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -1.3%
30D +4.4%
90D +554.8%
UNSTABLE · SEALED LINEUPEV ratio · click to compare
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 54 days — it first crossed on 2026-05-22.
WHAT YOU'LL ACTUALLY OPEN
Half of all boxes open between $1,085.36 and $1,249.81.
One in four cracks below $1,085.36. One in four clears $1,249.81.
The box costs $1,005.01, so the median crack puts you up$158.66.
VOLATILITY · OUTCOME SPREAD
±7%
σ ≈ $122
LOW $1,085
1-in-4 below TYPICAL $1,164
median crack HIGH $1,250
1-in-4 above BOX $1,005
you pay ANATOMY What's in the box
1 DISPLAY = 216 PACKS
×1
↑ one pack 16 slots per pack
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
7
Common
3
Uncommon
1
Rare or Mythic 1 per pack
2
Wildcard Any rarity or treatment
3
Traditional Foil Any rarity, foil
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
44%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Lands $1,029.06 88%
Rare / Mythic $87.65 7%
Commons & Uncommons $45.51 4%
Wildcard / Treatment $11.43 1%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
MIN CARD VALUE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | $1,005.01 | $1,009.99 | $1,031.90 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-18 | $1,005.01 | $1,009.99 | $1,031.90 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | $1,005.01 | $1,009.99 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-16 | $1,005.01 | $1,009.99 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | $1,005.01 | $1,009.99 | $1,031.90 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-14 | $1,005.01 | $1,009.99 | $1,031.90 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-13 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-11 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-08 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-06 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-05 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-04 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-02 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-07-01 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-06-29 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-06-28 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-06-27 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | $1,005.01 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | $1,033.80 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-05-03 | $1,033.80 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-05-02 | $1,033.80 | $1,030.00 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | $1,033.80 | $1,033.80 | $1,066.90 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | $1,033.80 | $1,005.01 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | $1,033.80 | $1,005.01 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | $1,033.80 | $1,005.01 | $1,033.80 | $1,100.00 |
| 2026-04-26 | $1,033.80 | $1,005.01 | $1,031.90 | $1,100.00 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-07-19 CRACK
UNSTABLE · BOOSTER BOX
115.8%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $1,163.67 · Box Price $1,005.01 7D -1.3%
30D +4.4%
90D +554.8%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-07-19 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
370 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-07-19.