SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
![Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/229375_400w.jpg)
Is Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2] Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 767 DAYS TRACKED HOLD Keep it sealed.
BOX PRICE $254.55 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $197.65 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $270 / $128 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +1.8%
30D +183.0%
90D +8.3%
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GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2] box price and crack EV, last 767 days: box from $127.53 to $269.67, EV from $69.19 to $209.64.
▼
Crack EV currently sits $56.90 below box price — sealed has the edge today.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
15
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Ranar The Ever Watchful
1
Angel Of Finality
1
Angel Of Serenity
1
Arcane Artisan
1
Brago, King Eternal
1
Burnished Hart
1
Cloudblazer
1
Cloudgoat Ranger
1
Empyrean Eagle
1
Ethereal Valkyrie
1
Evangel Of Heliod
1
Flickerwisp
1
Geist Honored Monk
1
Goldnight Commander
1
Hero Of Bretagard
1
Inspired Sphinx
1
Kor Cartographer
1
Meteor Golem
1
Mist Raven
1
Mistmeadow Witch
1
Mulldrifter
1
Restoration Angel
1
Sage Of The Beyond
1
Sea Gate Oracle
1
Soulherder
1
Stoic Farmer
1
Sun Titan
1
Thunderclap Wyvern
1
Vega, The Watcher
1
Wall Of Omens
1
Whirler Rogue
1
Behold The Multiverse
1
Cosmic Intervention
1
Eerie Interlude
1
Ghostly Flicker
1
Iron Verdict
1
Momentary Blink
1
Return To Dust
1
Saw It Coming
1
Synthetic Destiny
1
Warhorn Blast
1
Cleansing Nova
1
Curse Of The Swine
1
Migratory Route
1
Ravenform
1
Spectral Deluge
1
Storm Herd
1
Tales Of The Ancestors
1
Windfall
1
Banishing Light
1
Day Of The Dragons
1
Ghostly Prison
1
Marshal'S Anthem
1
Niko Defies Destiny
2
Arcane Signet
1
Azorius Signet
1
Commander'S Sphere
1
Marble Diamond
1
Mind Stone
1
Replicating Ring
1
Sky Diamond
2
Sol Ring
1
Swiftfoot Boots
1
Azorius Chancery
1
Azorius Guildgate
2
Command Tower
1
Cryptic Caves
1
Gates Of Istfell
1
Glacial Floodplain
1
Meandering River
1
Opal Palace
13
Plains
1
Sejiri Refuge
1
Tranquil Cove
1
Lathril, Blade Of The Elves
1
Abomination Of Llanowar
1
Beast Whisperer
1
Canopy Tactician
1
Cultivator Of Blades
1
Dwynen, Gilt Leaf Daen
1
Elderfang Ritualist
1
Elvish Archdruid
1
Elvish Mystic
1
Elvish Rejuvenator
1
End Raze Forerunners
1
Eyeblight Cullers
1
Farhaven Elf
1
Golgari Findbroker
1
Harald, King Of Skemfar
1
Imperious Perfect
1
Jagged Scar Archers
1
Jaspera Sentinel
1
Llanowar Tribe
1
Lys Alana Huntmaster
1
Lys Alana Scarblade
1
Marwyn, The Nurturer
1
Masked Admirers
1
Miara, Thorn Of The Glade
1
Nullmage Shepherd
1
Numa, Joraga Chieftain
1
Poison Tip Archer
1
Reclamation Sage
1
Rhys The Exiled
1
Ruthless Winnower
1
Shaman Of The Pack
1
Skemfar Shadowsage
1
Springbloom Druid
1
Sylvan Messenger
1
Timberwatch Elf
1
Twinblade Assassins
1
Voice Of Many
1
Voice Of The Woods
1
Wirewood Channeler
1
Wolverine Riders
1
Wood Elves
1
Elven Ambush
1
Poison The Cup
1
Putrefy
1
Tergrid'S Shadow
1
Ambition'S Cost
1
Bounty Of Skemfar
1
Casualties Of War
1
Eyeblight Massacre
1
Elvish Promenade
1
Harvest Season
1
Pact Of The Serpent
1
Return Upon The Tide
1
Roots Of Wisdom
1
Serpent'S Soul Jar
1
Binding The Old Gods
1
Crown Of Skemfar
1
Elderfang Venom
1
Pride Of The Perfect
1
Prowess Of The Fair
1
Moldervine Reclamation
16
Forest
1
Foul Orchard
1
Golgari Guildgate
1
Golgari Rot Farm
1
Jungle Hollow
1
Path Of Ancestry
1
Skemfar Elderhall
13
Swamp
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
27%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $74.79 38%
Bonus Sheet $73.58 37%
Commons & Uncommons $49.28 25%
Lands $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $254.55 | $289.00 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-21 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-20 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-19 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-18 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-17 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-16 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-07 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-06 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-05 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-04 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-03 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $289.98 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-02 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $294.49 | $333.33 |
| 2026-09-01 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $294.49 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-31 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $294.49 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-30 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $294.50 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-29 | $254.55 | $289.98 | $299.00 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-28 | $254.55 | $298.99 | $299.00 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-27 | $254.55 | $298.99 | $299.00 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-26 | $254.55 | $298.99 | $299.00 | $333.33 |
| 2026-08-25 | $254.55 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-24 | $254.55 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-23 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-22 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-21 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-20 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-19 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-18 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-17 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
| 2026-08-16 | $269.67 | $333.33 | $337.71 | $342.08 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 HOLD
KALDHEIM COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
77.6%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $197.65 · Box Price $254.55 7D +1.8%
30D +183.0%
90D +8.3%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2]
Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2] currently sells for $254.55 at market, down 5.6% over 30 days and up 40.7% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $269.67 (2026-08-12); low: $127.53 (2024-07-14).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2] FAQ
Is Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2] worth opening?
Keep it sealed. Median crack value is $197.65 against a $254.55 box price (0.78× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from Kaldheim - Commander Deck [Set of 2]?
The top pull by value is Swamp (about $1.86), with roughly a 1300.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
767 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.