SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
![March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/484593_400w.jpg)
Is March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5] Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 775 DAYS TRACKED NEUTRAL Coin flip.
BOX PRICE $413.56 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $375.94 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $414 / $156 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +1.3%
30D +2.5%
90D -2.7%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5] box price and crack EV, last 775 days: box from $156.06 to $413.56, EV from $1.90 to $419.80.
▼
Crack EV currently sits $37.62 below box price — sealed has the edge today.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
24
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Bright Palm, Soul Awakener
1
Shalai And Hallar
1
Death Greeter'S Champion
1
Uncivil Unrest
5
Ichor Elixir
1
Mirror Style Master
1
Guardian Scalelord
1
Emergent Woodwurm
1
Path Of The Pyromancer
1
Conclave Sledge Captain
1
Kalonian Hydra
1
Mikaeus, The Lunarch
1
Canopy Vista
1
Champion Of Lambholt
2
Cinder Glade
1
Dromoka'S Command
5
Exotic Orchard
1
Flamerush Rider
1
Flameshadow Conjuring
1
Forgotten Ancient
1
Fortified Village
2
Furycalm Snarl
2
Game Trail
1
Gavony Township
1
Genesis Hydra
1
Gyre Sage
1
Heaven // Earth
1
High Sentinels Of Arashin
1
Incubation Druid
1
Inscription Of Abundance
1
Ion Storm
1
Kessig Wolf Run
1
Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin
1
Managorger Hydra
1
Mossfire Valley
1
Mosswort Bridge
1
Restoration Angel
1
Rishkar, Peema Renegade
1
Semester'S End
1
Strionic Resonator
1
Sungrass Prairie
1
Sunscorch Regent
2
Temple Of Abandon
1
Temple Of Plenty
2
Temple Of Triumph
1
Together Forever
1
Triskelion
5
Command Tower
4
Commander'S Sphere
1
Cultivate
5
Evolving Wilds
1
Fertilid
5
Fractured Powerstone
1
Kodama'S Reach
4
Path Of Ancestry
1
Pridemalkin
1
Return To Nature
5
Terramorphic Expanse
1
Wood Elves
1
Abzan Battle Priest
1
Abzan Falconer
1
Alharu, Solemn Ritualist
5
Arcane Signet
1
Armorcraft Judge
1
Brawn
1
Bretagard Stronghold
1
Conclave Mentor
1
Constable Of The Realm
1
Elite Scaleguard
1
Enduring Scalelord
1
Falkenrath Exterminator
1
Field Of Ruin
1
Generous Gift
1
Good Fortune Unicorn
1
Hamza, Guardian Of Arashin
1
Hindervines
1
Inspiring Call
1
Jungle Shrine
1
Juniper Order Ranger
1
Krosan Verge
1
Llanowar Reborn
1
Mindless Automaton
2
Rogue'S Passage
1
Slurrk, All Ingesting
5
Sol Ring
4
Swords To Plowshares
2
Temple Of The False God
31
Plains
18
Mountain
13
Forest
1
Kasla, The Broken Halo
1
Saint Traft And Rem Karolus
1
Wand Of The Worldsoul
1
Flockchaser Phantom
1
Wildfire Awakener
1
Path Of The Ghosthunter
1
Deluxe Dragster
1
Mistmeadow Vanisher
1
Nesting Dovehawk
1
Kykar, Wind'S Fury
1
Elspeth, Sun'S Champion
1
The Locust God
1
Angel Of Finality
1
Angel Of Salvation
1
Austere Command
1
Chasm Skulker
1
Cultivator'S Caravan
1
Emeria Angel
2
Frostboil Snarl
1
Hour Of Reckoning
1
Keeper Of The Accord
1
Kher Keep
1
Mentor Of The Meek
1
Nadir Kraken
2
Port Town
2
Prairie Stream
1
Secure The Wastes
1
Skycloud Expanse
2
Temple Of Enlightenment
2
Temple Of Epiphany
1
Venerated Loxodon
1
Whirlwind Of Thought
1
Cloud Of Faeries
1
Ephemeral Shields
1
Goblin Instigator
1
Goblin Medics
1
Impact Tremors
1
Spirited Companion
1
Suture Priest
1
Village Bell Ringer
1
Banisher Priest
1
Battle Screech
1
Chant Of Vitu Ghazi
1
Conclave Tribunal
1
Devouring Light
1
Duergar Hedge Mage
1
Fallowsage
1
Flight Of Equenauts
1
Improbable Alliance
1
Migratory Route
1
Mystic Monastery
1
Seraph Of The Masses
1
Skullclamp
1
Stoke The Flames
1
Tetsuko Umezawa, Fugitive
1
Temporal Cleansing
1
Meeting Of Minds
1
Shatter The Source
1
Wrenn'S Resolve
1
Cut Short
1
Joyful Stormsculptor
1
Artistic Refusal
1
Sidar Jabari Of Zhalfir
1
Elenda And Azor
1
Exsanguinator Cavalry
1
Herald Of Hoofbeats
1
Locthwain Lancer
1
Chivalric Alliance
1
Path Of The Enigma
1
Vodalian Wave Knight
1
Conjurer'S Mantle
1
Ethersworn Adjudicator
1
Hero Of Bladehold
1
Vona, Butcher Of Magan
1
Acclaimed Contender
1
Adeline, Resplendent Cathar
1
Aryel, Knight Of Windgrace
1
Choked Estuary
1
Fell The Mighty
1
Haakon, Stromgald Scourge
1
Josu Vess, Lich Knight
1
Knight Exemplar
1
Knight Of The White Orchid
1
Knights' Charge
1
Liliana'S Standard Bearer
1
Maul Of The Skyclaves
1
Midnight Reaper
1
Murderous Rider // Swift End
1
Painful Truths
1
Promise Of Loyalty
1
Pull From Tomorrow
2
Shineshadow Snarl
1
Sigiled Sword Of Valeron
1
Silverwing Squadron
1
Sunken Hollow
1
Temple Of Deceit
2
Temple Of Silence
1
Time Wipe
1
Unbreakable Formation
1
Valiant Knight
1
Vanquisher'S Banner
1
Worthy Knight
2
Bojuka Bog
1
Distant Melody
2
Orzhov Signet
1
Read The Bones
1
Smitten Swordmaster // Curry Favor
1
Thriving Heath
1
Thriving Isle
1
Thriving Moor
1
Arcane Sanctum
1
Arvad The Cursed
1
Corpse Knight
2
Despark
1
Fellwar Stone
1
Herald'S Horn
1
Knight Of The Last Breath
1
Knights Of The Black Rose
2
Mind Stone
1
Order Of Midnight // Alter Fate
1
Path To Exile
1
Return To Dust
1
Syr Elenora, The Discerning
1
Syr Konrad, The Grim
1
Wintermoor Commander
1
Xerex Strobe Knight
18
Swamp
1
Brimaz, Blight Of Oreskos
1
Moira And Teshar
1
Blight Titan
1
Darksteel Splicer
1
Excise The Imperfect
1
Filigree Vector
1
Path Of The Schemer
1
Bitterthorn, Nissa'S Animus
1
Vulpine Harvester
1
Cataclysmic Gearhulk
1
Massacre Wurm
1
Noxious Gearhulk
1
Phyrexian Scriptures
1
Phyrexian Triniform
1
Soul Of New Phyrexia
1
Ancient Stone Idol
1
Angel Of The Ruins
1
Blade Splicer
1
Coveted Jewel
1
Duplicant
1
Fetid Heath
1
Karn'S Bastion
1
Myr Battlesphere
1
Nettlecyst
1
Phyrexian Delver
1
Phyrexian Rebirth
1
Psychosis Crawler
1
Scrap Trawler
1
Sculpting Steel
1
Scytheclaw
1
Spire Of Industry
1
Utter End
1
Vault Of The Archangel
1
Yawgmoth'S Vile Offering
1
First Sphere Gargantua
1
Goldmire Bridge
1
Night'S Whisper
1
Orzhov Locket
1
Phyrexian Ghoul
1
Phyrexian Rager
1
Silverquill Campus
1
Wayfarer'S Bauble
1
Ambition'S Cost
1
Bloodline Pretender
1
Bone Shredder
1
Burnished Hart
1
Go For The Throat
1
Graveshifter
1
Keskit, The Flesh Sculptor
1
Master Splicer
1
Meteor Golem
1
Mortify
1
Shattered Angel
1
Shimmer Myr
1
Tainted Field
1
Talisman Of Hierarchy
1
Victimize
1
Compleated Huntmaster
1
Phyrexian Gargantua
1
Gimbal, Gremlin Prodigy
1
Rashmi And Ragavan
1
Schema Thief
1
Sandsteppe War Riders
1
Cutthroat Negotiator
1
Hedron Detonator
1
Path Of The Animist
1
Pain Distributor
1
Dance With Calamity
1
Pia And Kiran Nalaar
1
Feldon Of The Third Path
1
Chaos Warp
1
Stroke Of Genius
1
Academy Manufactor
1
Aid From The Cowl
1
Bloodforged Battle Axe
1
Brass'S Bounty
1
Echo Storm
1
Everquill Phoenix
1
Fiery Confluence
1
Gilded Goose
1
Hellkite Igniter
1
Imprisoned In The Moon
1
Inspiring Statuary
1
Master Of Etherium
1
Masterful Replication
1
Perplexing Test
1
Rise And Shine
1
Saheeli'S Artistry
1
Sharding Sphinx
1
Shimmer Dragon
1
Skyclave Relic
1
Spell Swindle
1
Spine Of Ish Sah
1
Temple Of Mystery
1
Thopter Assembly
1
Thopter Spy Network
1
Tireless Tracker
1
Vedalken Humiliator
1
Vineglimmer Snarl
1
Workshop Elders
1
Crack Open
1
Gruul Signet
1
Izzet Signet
1
Reverse Engineer
1
Root Out
1
Simic Growth Chamber
1
Simic Signet
1
Thoughtcast
1
Replicating Ring
1
Combine Chrysalis
1
Curse Of Opulence
1
Frontier Bivouac
1
Ghirapur Aether Grid
1
Junk Winder
1
Reality Shift
1
Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
1
Tireless Provisioner
1
Vampires' Vengeance
1
Weirding Wood
1
Whirler Rogue
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
15%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $279.75 74%
Commons & Uncommons $83.76 22%
Lands $10.37 3%
Bonus Sheet $2.06 1%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $413.56 | $454.99 | $474.99 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $413.56 | $454.99 | $474.99 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $413.56 | $455.00 | $474.99 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $410.57 | $455.99 | $472.50 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $408.47 | $455.99 | $472.50 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $408.47 | $455.99 | $472.50 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $408.47 | $455.99 | $472.50 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-11 | $406.33 | $456.00 | $474.99 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | $406.33 | $456.00 | $482.50 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $402.05 | $454.99 | $467.00 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $402.05 | $454.99 | $467.00 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $402.05 | $456.00 | $471.00 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $402.05 | $456.99 | $484.75 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $399.88 | $456.99 | $484.75 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $599.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $499.00 | $599.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $499.00 | $599.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $499.00 | $599.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $479.87 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $479.87 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $479.87 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $479.87 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $479.87 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | $399.88 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | $398.09 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | $398.09 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | $398.09 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | $398.09 | $466.99 | $484.75 | $550.00 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 NEUTRAL
MARCH OF THE MACHINE COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
90.9%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $375.94 · Box Price $413.56 7D +1.3%
30D +2.5%
90D -2.7%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5]
March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5] currently sells for $413.56 at market, up 3.4% over 30 days and up 10.5% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $413.56 (2026-09-20); low: $156.06 (2024-09-11).
COMMON QUESTIONS
March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5] FAQ
Is March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5] worth opening?
Coin flip. Median crack value is $375.94 against a $413.56 box price (0.91× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from March of the Machine Commander Decks [Set of 5]?
The top pull by value is Nesting Dovehawk (about $22.26), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
775 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.