SEALED · BOOSTER CASE
Is Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-24 · 774 DAYS TRACKED CRACK Open it.
BOX PRICE $338.45 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $495.02 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $338 / $119 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 182 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +2.4%
30D +7.7%
90D +11.7%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case box price and crack EV, last 774 days: box from $118.98 to $338.45, EV from $170.90 to $495.81.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 182 days.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
19
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Kaust, Eyes Of The Glade
1
Duskana, The Rage Mother
1
True Identity
1
Unexplained Absence
1
Veiled Ascension
1
Boltbender
1
Showstopping Surprise
1
Tesak, Judith'S Hellhound
1
Experiment Twelve
1
Printlifter Ooze
1
Panoptic Projektor
4
Ransom Note
1
Ugin'S Mastery
1
Austere Command
1
Exalted Angel
1
Fell The Mighty
1
Hidden Dragonslayer
1
Master Of Pearls
1
Mastery Of The Unseen
1
Mirror Entity
1
Welcoming Vampire
1
Akroma, Angel Of Fury
1
Ashcloud Phoenix
1
Chaos Warp
1
Imperial Hellkite
1
Jeska'S Will
1
Neheb, The Eternal
1
Scourge Of The Throne
1
Beast Whisperer
1
Deathmist Raptor
1
Den Protector
1
Hooded Hydra
1
Krosan Cloudscraper
1
Krosan Colossus
1
Obscuring Aether
1
Ohran Frostfang
1
Return Of The Wildspeaker
1
Root Elemental
1
Saryth, The Viper'S Fang
1
Seedborn Muse
1
Temur War Shaman
1
Thelonite Hermit
1
Toski, Bearer Of Secrets
1
Trail Of Mystery
1
Whisperwood Elemental
1
Yedora, Grave Gardener
1
Decimate
1
Sidar Kondo Of Jamuraa
1
Lifecrafter'S Bestiary
1
Scroll Of Fate
2
Canopy Vista
1
Cinder Glade
3
Exotic Orchard
1
Fortified Village
2
Furycalm Snarl
1
Game Trail
1
Kessig Wolf Run
1
Mossfire Valley
1
Mosswort Bridge
2
Scattered Groves
1
Sheltered Thicket
1
Shrine Of The Forsaken Gods
2
Sungrass Prairie
1
Temple Of Abandon
2
Temple Of Plenty
2
Temple Of Triumph
1
Path To Exile
1
Ainok Survivalist
1
Broodhatch Nantuko
1
Nervous Gardener
1
Nantuko Vigilante
1
Nature'S Lore
1
Sakura Tribe Elder
1
Salt Road Ambushers
1
Three Visits
1
Wild Growth
4
Arcane Signet
4
Sol Ring
2
Boros Garrison
4
Command Tower
1
Branch Of Vitu Ghazi
1
Gruul Turf
1
Jungle Shrine
2
Krosan Verge
1
Sacred Peaks
2
Selesnya Sanctuary
4
Temple Of The False God
1
Zoetic Cavern
16
Plains
10
Mountain
9
Forest
1
Mirko, Obsessive Theorist
1
Marvo, Deep Operative
1
Case Of The Shifting Visage
1
Copy Catchers
1
Final Word Phantom
1
Watcher Of Hours
1
Charnel Serenade
1
Eye Of Duskmantle
1
Foreboding Steamboat
1
Unshakable Tail
1
Counterpoint
1
Amphin Mutineer
1
Dream Eater
1
Mission Briefing
1
Phyrexian Metamorph
1
Sphinx Of The Second Sun
1
Vizier Of Many Faces
1
Black Sun'S Zenith
1
Dogged Detective
1
Doom Whisperer
1
Grave Titan
1
Massacre Wurm
1
Overseer Of The Damned
1
Phyrexian Arena
1
Pile On
1
Reanimate
1
Rise Of The Dark Realms
1
Toxic Deluge
1
Twilight Prophet
1
Baleful Strix
1
Connive // Concoct
1
Lazav, The Multifarious
1
Master Of Death
1
Choked Estuary
1
Darkwater Catacombs
1
Drownyard Temple
1
Fetid Pools
1
Hostile Desert
1
River Of Tears
1
Sunken Hollow
1
Brainstorm
1
Consider
1
Curate
1
Deep Analysis
1
Enhanced Surveillance
1
Ephara'S Dispersal
1
Mulldrifter
1
Nightveil Sprite
1
Otherworldly Gaze
1
Thoughtbound Phantasm
1
Animate Dead
1
Necromancy
1
Price Of Fame
1
Ravenous Chupacabra
1
Shriekmaw
1
Sinister Starfish
1
Syr Konrad, The Grim
1
Whispering Snitch
1
Dimir Spybug
1
Disinformation Campaign
1
Notion Rain
1
Dimir Signet
1
Everflowing Chalice
2
Mind Stone
1
Talisman Of Dominance
2
Thought Vessel
2
Ash Barrens
1
Bojuka Bog
1
Dimir Aqueduct
1
Mystic Sanctuary
1
Port Of Karfell
3
Reliquary Tower
2
Rogue'S Passage
1
Tainted Isle
1
Tocasia'S Dig Site
9
Swamp
1
Morska, Undersea Sleuth
1
Sophia, Dogged Detective
1
Armed With Proof
1
Merchant Of Truth
1
Serene Sleuth
1
Detective Of The Month
1
Follow The Bodies
1
Tangletrove Kelp
1
Innocuous Researcher
1
On The Trail
1
Knowledge Is Power
1
Aerial Extortionist
1
Bennie Bracks, Zoologist
1
Farewell
1
Fumigate
1
Organic Extinction
1
Search The Premises
1
Confirm Suspicions
1
Ethereal Investigator
1
Finale Of Revelation
1
Kappa Cannoneer
1
Mechanized Production
1
Nadir Kraken
1
Shimmer Dragon
1
Teferi'S Ageless Insight
1
Tezzeret, Betrayer Of Flesh
1
Thought Monitor
1
Hornet Queen
1
Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse
1
Killer Service
1
Tireless Tracker
1
Adrix And Nev, Twincasters
1
Chulane, Teller Of Tales
1
Disorder In The Court
1
Esix, Fractal Bloom
1
Hydroid Krasis
1
Koma, Cosmos Serpent
1
Lonis, Cryptozoologist
1
Selvala, Explorer Returned
1
Academy Manufactor
1
Idol Of Oblivion
1
Inspiring Statuary
1
Nettlecyst
1
Psychosis Crawler
1
Prairie Stream
1
Skycloud Expanse
1
Spire Of Industry
1
Temple Of Enlightenment
1
Temple Of Mystery
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Erdwal Illuminator
1
Junk Winder
1
Ongoing Investigation
1
Whirler Rogue
1
Graf Mole
1
Ulvenwald Mysteries
1
Wilderness Reclamation
1
Wavesifter
1
Azorius Signet
1
Simic Signet
1
Talisman Of Curiosity
1
Talisman Of Progress
1
Talisman Of Unity
1
Azorius Chancery
1
Magnifying Glass
1
Lonely Sandbar
1
Path Of Ancestry
1
Seaside Citadel
1
Secluded Steppe
1
Simic Growth Chamber
1
Tranquil Thicket
1
Nelly Borca, Impulsive Accuser
1
Feather, Radiant Arbiter
1
Immortal Obligation
1
Otherworldly Escort
1
Redemption Arc
1
Trouble In Pairs
1
Havoc Eater
1
Hot Pursuit
1
Mob Verdict
1
Prisoner'S Dilemma
1
Take The Bait
1
Angel Of The Ruins
1
Comeuppance
1
Darien, King Of Kjeldor
1
Duelist'S Heritage
1
Elspeth, Sun'S Champion
1
Keeper Of The Accord
1
Loran Of The Third Path
1
Promise Of Loyalty
1
Selfless Squire
1
Sevinne'S Reclamation
1
Smuggler'S Share
1
Stalking Leonin
1
Sun Titan
1
Windborn Muse
1
Winds Of Rath
1
Agitator Ant
1
Brash Taunter
1
Disrupt Decorum
1
Etali, Primal Storm
1
Fiendish Duo
1
Frontier Warmonger
1
Kazuul, Tyrant Of The Cliffs
1
Spectacular Showdown
1
Vengeful Ancestor
1
Anya, Merciless Angel
1
Boros Reckoner
1
Deflecting Palm
1
Gisela, Blade Of Goldnight
1
Ancient Stone Idol
1
Solemn Simulacrum
1
Steel Hellkite
1
Tome Of Legends
1
Castle Ardenvale
1
Kher Keep
1
Labyrinth Of Skophos
1
Needle Spires
1
Scavenger Grounds
1
Slayers' Stronghold
1
Throne Of The High City
1
War Room
1
Ghostly Prison
1
Gideon'S Sacrifice
1
Martial Impetus
1
Orzhov Advokist
1
Seal Of Cleansing
1
Soul Snare
1
Vow Of Duty
1
Wall Of Omens
1
Curse Of Opulence
1
Rite Of The Raging Storm
1
Shiny Impetus
1
Vow Of Lightning
1
Bloodthirsty Blade
1
Fellwar Stone
1
Talisman Of Conviction
1
Access Tunnel
1
Escape Tunnel
1
Sunhome, Fortress Of The Legion
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
18%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $369.72 75%
Commons & Uncommons $94.93 19%
Lands $30.37 6%
Bonus Sheet $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | $338.45 | $459.99 | $484.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-23 | $338.45 | $459.99 | $484.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | $338.45 | $459.99 | $484.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $338.45 | $459.99 | $484.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $338.45 | $459.99 | $484.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $338.45 | $469.90 | $494.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $338.45 | $469.90 | $494.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $338.45 | $469.90 | $494.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $338.45 | $469.90 | $494.99 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-12 | $329.37 | $360.00 | $472.45 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-11 | $329.37 | $360.00 | $472.45 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | $325.77 | $360.00 | $472.45 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-08 | $318.06 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $318.06 | $348.51 | $383.26 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $318.06 | $348.51 | $383.26 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $318.06 | $348.51 | $383.26 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $318.06 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $313.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $313.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $313.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $589.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $383.26 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-28 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-27 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-26 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-25 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-24 | $309.97 | $348.51 | $393.01 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-23 | $309.97 | $360.00 | $396.46 | $499.95 |
| 2026-08-22 | $309.97 | $360.00 | $396.46 | $499.95 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-24 CRACK
MURDERS AT KARLOV MANOR COMMANDER · BOOSTER CASE
146.3%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $495.02 · Box Price $338.45 7D +2.4%
30D +7.7%
90D +11.7%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-24 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case
Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case currently sells for $338.45 at market, up 9.2% over 30 days and up 17.5% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $338.45 (2026-09-16); low: $118.98 (2024-07-19).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case FAQ
Is Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case worth opening?
Open it. Median crack value is $495.02 against a $338.45 box price (1.46× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-24.
What is the best card you can pull from Murders at Karlov Manor Commander Deck Case?
The top pull by value is Jeska's Will (about $40.41), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
774 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-24.