SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
![Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/257578_400w.jpg)
Is Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2] Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 770 DAYS TRACKED HOLD Keep it sealed.
BOX PRICE $183.76 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $142.53 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $184 / $69 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +0.4%
30D +4.7%
90D +3.6%
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GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2] box price and crack EV, last 770 days: box from $69.10 to $183.76, EV from $100.13 to $165.15.
▼
Crack EV currently sits $41.23 below box price — sealed has the edge today.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
15
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Chishiro, The Shattered Blade
1
Kaima, The Fractured Calm
1
Ox Of Agonas
1
Akki Battle Squad
1
Kami Of Celebration
1
Komainu Battle Armor
1
Ascendant Acolyte
1
Kosei, Penitent Warlord
1
Rampant Rejuvenator
1
Tanuki Transplanter
1
Orochi Merge Keeper
1
Towashi Guide Bot
1
Walking Skyscraper
1
Agitator Ant
1
Goblin Razerunners
1
Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin
1
Taurean Mauler
1
Acidic Slime
1
Champion Of Lambholt
1
Fertilid
1
Forgotten Ancient
1
Genesis Hydra
1
Loyal Guardian
1
Primeval Protector
1
Rishkar, Peema Renegade
1
Sakura Tribe Elder
1
Spearbreaker Behemoth
1
Whiptongue Hydra
1
Grumgully, The Generous
1
Ulasht, The Hate Seed
1
Collision Of Realms
1
Smoke Spirits' Aid
1
Chain Reaction
1
Kodama'S Reach
1
Rampant Growth
1
Rishkar'S Expertise
1
Shamanic Revelation
1
Soul'S Majesty
1
Vastwood Surge
1
Decimate
1
Silkguard
1
Chaos Warp
1
Starstorm
1
Beast Within
1
Hunter'S Insight
1
Mage Slayer
2
Arcane Signet
1
Blackblade Reforged
1
Bonehoard
1
Fireshrieker
2
Sol Ring
1
Swiftfoot Boots
1
Sword Of Vengeance
1
Unquenchable Fury
1
Concord With The Kami
1
One With The Kami
1
Invigorating Hot Spring
1
Elemental Mastery
1
Shifting Shadow
1
Bear Umbra
1
Ordeal Of Nylea
1
Snake Umbra
1
Rhythm Of The Wild
1
Cinder Glade
2
Command Tower
2
Exotic Orchard
1
Game Trail
1
Gruul Turf
2
Mossfire Valley
1
Opal Palace
1
Oran Rief, The Vastwood
1
Raging Ravine
1
Temple Of Abandon
12
Mountain
14
Forest
1
Kotori, Pilot Prodigy
1
Shorikai, Genesis Engine
1
Jace, Architect Of Thought
1
Drumbellower
1
Ironsoul Enforcer
1
Cyberdrive Awakener
1
Kappa Cannoneer
1
Katsumasa, The Animator
1
Research Thief
1
Aeronaut Admiral
1
Cataclysmic Gearhulk
1
Indomitable Archangel
1
Myrsmith
1
Sram, Senior Edificer
1
Teshar, Ancestor'S Apostle
1
Emry, Lurker Of The Loch
1
Etherium Sculptor
1
Master Of Etherium
1
Riddlesmith
1
Sai, Master Thopterist
1
Vedalken Engineer
1
Whirler Rogue
1
Arcanist'S Owl
1
Hanna, Ship'S Navigator
1
Raff Capashen, Ship'S Mage
1
Foundry Inspector
1
Gold Myr
1
Shimmer Myr
1
Silver Myr
1
Solemn Simulacrum
1
Organic Extinction
1
Universal Surveillance
1
Thoughtcast
1
Dance Of The Manse
1
Release To Memory
1
Access Denied
1
Armed And Armored
1
Crush Contraband
1
Dispatch
1
Generous Gift
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Reality Shift
1
Aerial Surveyor
1
Imposter Mech
1
Imperial Recovery Unit
1
Mobilizer Mech
1
Prodigy'S Prototype
1
Surgehacker Mech
1
Parhelion Ii
1
Azorius Signet
1
Colossal Plow
1
Cultivator'S Caravan
1
Fellwar Stone
1
Mirage Mirror
1
Peacewalker Colossus
1
Raiders' Karve
1
Skysovereign, Consul Flagship
1
Smuggler'S Copter
1
Weatherlight
1
Swift Reconfiguration
1
Thopter Spy Network
1
Port Town
1
Prairie Stream
1
Skycloud Expanse
1
Spire Of Industry
1
Temple Of Enlightenment
15
Plains
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
18%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $106.05 74%
Commons & Uncommons $36.48 26%
Bonus Sheet $0.00 0%
Lands $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $183.76 | $199.00 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $183.76 | $199.95 | $200.00 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $183.76 | $199.95 | $200.00 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $183.76 | $199.95 | $200.00 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $183.76 | $199.95 | $200.00 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $183.76 | $199.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $183.76 | $199.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.97 | $289.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.97 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.97 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.97 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-27 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-26 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-23 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-22 | $183.04 | $184.95 | $199.95 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-21 | $182.28 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-20 | $182.28 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-19 | $182.28 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-18 | $182.28 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-17 | $182.28 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
| 2026-08-16 | $182.28 | $184.95 | $199.99 | $289.99 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 HOLD
NEON DYNASTY COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
77.6%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $142.53 · Box Price $183.76 7D +0.4%
30D +4.7%
90D +3.6%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2]
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2] currently sells for $183.76 at market, up 0.4% over 30 days and up 2.9% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $183.76 (2026-09-16); low: $69.10 (2024-10-04).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2] FAQ
Is Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2] worth opening?
Keep it sealed. Median crack value is $142.53 against a $183.76 box price (0.78× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty - Commander Decks [Set of 2]?
The top pull by value is Bear Umbra (about $14.02), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
770 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.