SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
![Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/221139_400w.jpg)
Is Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2] Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 769 DAYS TRACKED CRACK Open it.
BOX PRICE $85.81 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $95.88 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $86 / $47 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 29 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -7.5%
30D +124.6%
90D -10.5%
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GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2] box price and crack EV, last 769 days: box from $47.17 to $85.81, EV from $42.69 to $124.18.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 29 days — it first crossed on 2026-08-25.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
18
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Obuun, Mul Daya Ancestor
1
Admonition Angel
1
Trove Warden
1
Geode Rager
1
Emeria Angel
1
Emeria Shepherd
1
Sun Titan
1
Multani, Yavimaya'S Avatar
1
Rampaging Baloths
1
Sylvan Advocate
1
Waker Of The Wilds
1
Living Twister
1
Mina And Denn, Wildborn
1
Omnath, Locus Of Rage
1
Abzan Falconer
1
Elite Scaleguard
1
Kor Cartographer
1
Acidic Slime
1
Armorcraft Judge
1
Elvish Rejuvenator
1
Embodiment Of Insight
1
Evolution Sage
1
Fertilid
1
Keeper Of Fables
1
Satyr Wayfinder
1
Sporemound
1
Springbloom Druid
1
Tuskguard Captain
1
Yavimaya Elder
1
Sandstone Oracle
1
Scaretiller
1
Murasa Rootgrazer
1
Hour Of Revelation
1
Planar Outburst
1
Nissa'S Renewal
1
Beanstalk Giant // Fertile Footsteps
1
Circuitous Route
1
Far Wanderings
1
Harmonize
1
Kodama'S Reach
1
Ground Assault
1
Treacherous Terrain
1
Return Of The Wildspeaker
1
Condemn
1
Crush Contraband
1
Harrow
1
Inspiring Call
1
Naya Charm
1
Sylvan Reclamation
1
Roiling Regrowth
1
Seer'S Sundial
2
Arcane Signet
2
Sol Ring
1
Together Forever
1
Abundance
1
The Mending Of Dominaria
1
Rites Of Flourishing
1
Banishing Light
1
Retreat To Emeria
1
Khalni Heart Expedition
1
Retreat To Kazandu
1
Zendikar'S Roil
1
Needle Spires
1
Boros Garrison
1
Boros Guildgate
2
Command Tower
1
Cryptic Caves
1
Evolving Wilds
1
Gruul Guildgate
1
Gruul Turf
1
Jungle Shrine
1
Krosan Verge
1
Naya Panorama
1
Selesnya Guildgate
1
Selesnya Sanctuary
1
Terramorphic Expanse
7
Plains
4
Mountain
10
Forest
1
Anowon, The Ruin Thief
1
Lazav, Dimir Mastermind
1
Enigma Thief
1
Scourge Of Fleets
1
Gonti, Lord Of Luxury
1
Nighthowler
1
Ogre Slumlord
1
Sepulchral Primordial
1
Consuming Aberration
1
Notion Thief
1
Oona, Queen Of The Fae
1
Sygg, River Cutthroat
1
Faerie Vandal
1
Invisible Stalker
1
Latchkey Faerie
1
Marang River Prowler
1
Master Thief
1
Nightveil Sprite
1
Slither Blade
1
Triton Shorestalker
1
Whirler Rogue
1
Changeling Outcast
1
Frogtosser Banneret
1
Marsh Flitter
1
Oona'S Blackguard
1
Stinkdrinker Bandit
1
Syr Konrad, The Grim
1
Zulaport Cutthroat
1
Merfolk Windrobber
1
Sure Footed Infiltrator
1
Soaring Thought Thief
1
Notorious Throng
1
Stolen Identity
1
In Garruk'S Wake
1
Necromantic Selection
1
Distant Melody
1
Open Into Wonder
1
Endless Obedience
1
Rise From The Grave
1
Extract From Darkness
1
Fated Return
1
Silumgar'S Command
1
Spinal Embrace
1
Aetherize
1
Fact Or Fiction
1
Murder
1
Price Of Fame
1
Soul Manipulation
1
Whispersteel Dagger
1
Blackblade Reforged
1
Bonehoard
1
Obelisk Of Urd
1
Scytheclaw
1
Commander'S Sphere
1
Dimir Keyrune
1
Dimir Locket
1
Dimir Signet
1
Heirloom Blade
1
Mind Stone
1
Military Intelligence
1
Dimir Aqueduct
1
Dimir Guildgate
1
Dismal Backwater
1
Jwar Isle Refuge
1
Rogue'S Passage
1
Submerged Boneyard
15
Swamp
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
38%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Bonus Sheet $39.54 41%
Rare / Mythic $33.88 35%
Commons & Uncommons $22.46 23%
Lands $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $85.81 | $94.99 | $125.00 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-21 | $85.81 | $94.99 | $127.35 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-20 | $85.81 | $94.99 | $127.35 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-19 | $85.81 | $94.99 | $127.35 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-18 | $85.22 | $94.99 | $127.35 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-17 | $85.22 | $94.99 | $127.35 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-16 | $85.22 | $94.99 | $127.35 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-07 | $82.61 | $94.99 | $125.00 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-06 | $82.61 | $94.99 | $125.00 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-05 | $82.61 | $94.99 | $125.00 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-04 | $82.61 | $94.99 | $125.00 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-03 | $82.61 | $94.99 | $125.00 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-02 | $82.61 | $94.99 | $117.49 | $164.88 |
| 2026-09-01 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $117.49 | $164.88 |
| 2026-08-31 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $117.49 | $164.88 |
| 2026-08-30 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $124.84 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | $81.53 | $94.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $129.69 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $119.84 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $119.84 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $119.84 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-17 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $119.84 | $175.00 |
| 2026-08-16 | $81.53 | $98.99 | $119.84 | $175.00 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 CRACK
ZENDIKAR RISING COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
111.7%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $95.88 · Box Price $85.81 7D -7.5%
30D +124.6%
90D -10.5%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2]
Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2] currently sells for $85.81 at market, up 5.2% over 30 days and up 9.8% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $85.81 (2026-09-19); low: $47.17 (2024-11-30).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2] FAQ
Is Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2] worth opening?
Open it. Median crack value is $95.88 against a $85.81 box price (1.12× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from Zendikar Rising - Commander Deck [Set of 2]?
The top pull by value is Swamp (about $1.42), with roughly a 1500.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
769 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.