SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
Is Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 770 DAYS TRACKED FAVORED Slight crack.
BOX PRICE $368.36 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $401.67 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $368 / $234 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 197 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -0.1%
30D +2.1%
90D -0.8%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display box price and crack EV, last 770 days: box from $233.78 to $368.36, EV from $286.23 to $423.28.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 197 days.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
10
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Vrondiss, Rage Of Ancients
1
Bogardan Hellkite
1
Demanding Dragon
1
Dragonmaster Outcast
1
Hoard Smelter Dragon
1
Opportunistic Dragon
1
Scourge Of Valkas
1
Shivan Hellkite
1
Skyline Despot
1
Skyship Stalker
1
Taurean Mauler
1
Terror Of Mount Velus
1
Thunderbreak Regent
1
Chameleon Colossus
1
Atarka, World Render
1
Anger
1
Dragonlord'S Servant
1
Savage Ventmaw
1
Dragonspeaker Shaman
1
Chain Reaction
1
Rishkar'S Expertise
1
Shamanic Revelation
1
Rile
1
Cultivate
1
Explore
1
Rampant Growth
1
Magmaquake
1
Spit Flame
1
Decree Of Savagery
1
Kindred Summons
1
Return Of The Wildspeaker
1
Beast Within
1
Return To Nature
1
Dragon'S Hoard
4
Arcane Signet
3
Commander'S Sphere
1
Gruul Signet
1
Heirloom Blade
4
Sol Ring
1
Gratuitous Violence
1
Outpost Siege
1
Warstorm Surge
1
Colossal Majesty
1
Garruk'S Uprising
1
Cinder Glade
1
Crucible Of The Spirit Dragon
4
Exotic Orchard
1
Game Trail
1
Haven Of The Spirit Dragon
1
Mossfire Valley
1
Mosswort Bridge
4
Command Tower
1
Desert
1
Gruul Turf
2
Path Of Ancestry
25
Mountain
23
Forest
1
Klauth, Unrivaled Ancient
1
Berserker'S Frenzy
1
Chaos Dragon
1
Maddening Hex
1
Vengeful Ancestor
1
Bag Of Tricks
1
Druid Of Purification
1
Indomitable Might
1
Neverwinter Hydra
1
Wild Endeavor
1
Dragonborn Champion
1
Klauth'S Will
1
Wulfgar Of Icewind Dale
1
Barbarian Class
1
Earth Cult Elemental
2
Component Pouch
2
Sword Of Hours
2
Underdark Rift
1
Sefris Of The Hidden Ways
1
Cataclysmic Gearhulk
1
Eternal Dragon
1
Karmic Guide
1
Sun Titan
1
Sunblast Angel
1
Champion Of Wits
1
Curator Of Mysteries
1
Phantasmal Image
1
Doomed Necromancer
1
Ashen Rider
1
Baleful Strix
1
Hostage Taker
1
Solemn Simulacrum
1
Ronom Unicorn
1
Wall Of Omens
1
Merfolk Looter
1
Mulldrifter
1
Murder Of Crows
1
Plaguecrafter
1
Reassembling Skeleton
1
Shriekmaw
1
Cloudblazer
1
Necrotic Sliver
1
Obsessive Stitcher
1
Burnished Hart
1
Meteor Golem
1
Necromantic Selection
1
Unburial Rites
1
Victimize
1
Utter End
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Forbidden Alchemy
1
Despark
1
Vanish Into Memory
2
Fellwar Stone
1
Wayfarer'S Bauble
1
Lightning Greaves
1
Propaganda
1
Choked Estuary
1
Darkwater Catacombs
1
Geier Reach Sanitarium
1
High Market
1
Nimbus Maze
2
Port Town
2
Prairie Stream
1
Sunken Hollow
2
Evolving Wilds
1
Arcane Sanctum
2
Azorius Chancery
1
Dimir Aqueduct
1
Esper Panorama
1
Orzhov Basilica
2
Terramorphic Expanse
2
Thriving Heath
2
Thriving Isle
1
Thriving Moor
9
Plains
21
Swamp
1
Nihiloor
1
Immovable Rod
1
Radiant Solar
1
Revivify
1
Thorough Investigation
1
Arcane Endeavor
1
Minn, Wily Illusionist
1
Phantom Steed
1
Rod Of Absorption
1
Grave Endeavor
1
Wand Of Orcus
1
Extract Brain
1
Midnight Pathlighter
1
Minimus Containment
1
Hama Pashar, Ruin Seeker
1
Dungeon Map
2
Bucknard'S Everfull Purse
2
Clay Golem
1
Galea, Kindler Of Hope
1
Angel Of Finality
1
Puresteel Paladin
1
Realm Cloaked Giant // Cast Off
1
Sram, Senior Edificer
1
Prognostic Sphinx
1
Cold Eyed Selkie
1
Fleecemane Lion
1
Knight Of Autumn
1
Riverwise Augur
1
Acidic Slime
1
Paradise Druid
1
Winds Of Rath
1
Serum Visions
1
Nature'S Lore
1
Heroic Intervention
1
Valorous Stance
1
Brainstorm
1
Bant Charm
1
Argentum Armor
1
Basilisk Collar
1
Masterwork Of Ingenuity
1
Moonsilver Spear
1
Sword Of The Animist
1
Behemoth Sledge
1
Colossus Hammer
1
Explorer'S Scope
1
Swiftfoot Boots
1
Viridian Longbow
1
Imprisoned In The Moon
1
Greater Good
1
Verdant Embrace
1
Angelic Gift
1
Gryff'S Boon
1
Curse Of Verbosity
1
Eel Umbra
1
Psychic Impetus
1
Abundant Growth
1
Fertile Ground
1
Kenrith'S Transformation
1
Rancor
1
Utopia Sprawl
1
Wild Growth
1
Shielding Plax
1
Canopy Vista
1
Fortified Village
1
Lumbering Falls
1
Skycloud Expanse
1
Sungrass Prairie
1
Bant Panorama
1
Flood Plain
1
Halimar Depths
1
Mishra'S Factory
1
Seaside Citadel
1
Simic Growth Chamber
1
Thriving Grove
1
Vitu Ghazi, The City Tree
1
Storvald, Frost Giant Jarl
1
Fey Steed
1
Holy Avenger
1
Mantle Of The Ancients
1
Robe Of Stars
1
Valiant Endeavor
1
Diviner'S Portent
1
Netherese Puzzle Ward
1
Winged Boots
1
Belt Of Giant Strength
1
Song Of Inspiration
1
Catti Brie Of Mithral Hall
1
Ride The Avalanche
2
Ebony Fly
1
Prosper, Tome Bound
1
Chittering Witch
1
Fiend Of The Shadows
1
Gonti, Lord Of Luxury
1
Marionette Master
1
Ogre Slumlord
1
Piper Of The Swarm
1
Pontiff Of Blight
1
Dark Dweller Oracle
1
Dire Fleet Daredevil
1
Dream Pillager
1
Etali, Primal Storm
1
Izzet Chemister
1
Tectonic Giant
1
Loyal Apprentice
1
Consuming Vapors
1
Hex
1
Apex Of Power
1
Disrupt Decorum
1
Ignite The Future
1
Phthisis
1
Light Up The Stage
1
Throes Of Chaos
1
Vandalblast
1
Chaos Warp
1
Commune With Lava
1
Bedevil
1
Bituminous Blast
1
Rakdos Charm
1
Terminate
1
Chaos Wand
1
Mind Stone
1
Orazca Relic
1
Rakdos Signet
1
Talisman Of Indulgence
1
Unstable Obelisk
1
Dead Man'S Chest
1
Theater Of Horrors
1
Shiny Impetus
1
Foreboding Ruins
1
Shadowblood Ridge
1
Smoldering Marsh
1
Spinerock Knoll
1
Bojuka Bog
1
Mortuary Mire
1
Rakdos Carnarium
1
Tainted Peak
1
Zhalfirin Void
1
Karazikar, The Eye Tyrant
1
Bag Of Devouring
1
Danse Macabre
1
Death Tyrant
1
Grim Hireling
1
Hellish Rebuke
1
Lorcan, Warlock Collector
1
Fiendlash
1
Reckless Endeavor
1
Share The Spoils
1
Wild Magic Sorcerer
1
Fevered Suspicion
1
Warlock Class
1
Chaos Channeler
1
You Find Some Prisoners
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
11%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $300.56 75%
Commons & Uncommons $92.02 23%
Lands $9.09 2%
Bonus Sheet $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $368.36 | $379.00 | $389.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-21 | $368.36 | $380.00 | $394.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-20 | $368.36 | $380.00 | $394.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-19 | $368.36 | $380.00 | $394.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-18 | $368.36 | $380.00 | $394.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-17 | $368.36 | $380.00 | $389.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-16 | $368.36 | $380.00 | $389.99 | $439.95 |
| 2026-09-07 | $367.40 | $380.00 | $399.99 | $449.95 |
| 2026-09-06 | $367.61 | $363.51 | $399.99 | $449.95 |
| 2026-09-05 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $399.99 | $449.95 |
| 2026-09-04 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $399.99 | $449.95 |
| 2026-09-03 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $399.99 | $449.95 |
| 2026-09-02 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $390.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-09-01 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $390.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-31 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-30 | $363.25 | $363.51 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-29 | $362.35 | $363.51 | $379.50 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-28 | $362.35 | $363.51 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-27 | $362.35 | $363.51 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-26 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-25 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-24 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-23 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-22 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-21 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-20 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-19 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-18 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $380.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-17 | $362.35 | $378.50 | $390.00 | $449.95 |
| 2026-08-16 | $360.17 | $378.50 | $390.00 | $449.95 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 FAVORED
FORGOTTEN REALMS COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
109.0%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $401.67 · Box Price $368.36 7D -0.1%
30D +2.1%
90D -0.8%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display
Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display currently sells for $368.36 at market, up 1.7% over 30 days and up 9.7% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $368.36 (2026-09-16); low: $233.78 (2025-04-10).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display FAQ
Is Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display worth opening?
Slight crack. Median crack value is $401.67 against a $368.36 box price (1.09× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from Adventures in the Forgotten Realms - Commander Deck Display?
The top pull by value is Heroic Intervention (about $17.28), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
770 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.