TCG STRAT · Magic: the Gathering

Spread Windows: The Public Log

Windows we detected, published after close. When our nightly detection finds a spread that shouldn't exist — vendor bids above retail asks after all real costs — it logs the window and the full math. Entries appear here only once the window has closed, as a verifiable record of what the detection caught and how long it lasted. Not tips; by the time you read this, it's over.

Market data and analysis, not financial advice.

GLOSSARY What these terms mean
EV
Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
EV ratio
Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
Crack EV
The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
Median crack
The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
Spread
The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
Bid value
What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
Offer gap
The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
Playable
A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
Lane
A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
Closed spread windows with trigger, ask, bid value, net spread and duration
WINDOW TRIGGER ASK BID VALUE NET SPREAD LASTED Details
Nazgûl LTR #729 · 2026-09-17 → 2026-09-21 Vendor bid over retail (spike) $82.43 $100.00 +$5.40 4.0 days

At detection: asks $659.44 ($705.60 with tax) vs bids $720.00, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $5.40.

Vendor bid at detection: $100.00 (cardkingdom) × 8 modeled, vendor buy cap 8, against a $82.43 ask.

spike: bid 100.00 (cardkingdom) over retail 82.43 (Nazgûl)

Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2] SOS · 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-19 Sealed cash-out above box price $23.08 $30.84 −$9.30 11.4 days

At detection: asks $23.08 ($24.70 with tax) vs bids $28.39, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$9.30.

buylist EV 30.84 > market 23.08 (Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2])

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie SOS · 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-19 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.51 $17.79 −$10.01 11.4 days

At detection: asks $12.51 ($13.39 with tax) vs bids $16.37, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$10.01.

buylist EV 17.79 > market 12.51 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie)

Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging) NCC · 2026-09-16 → 2026-09-17 Sealed cash-out above box price $79.16 $79.23 −$21.00 24 h

At detection: asks $79.16 ($84.70 with tax) vs bids $72.70, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$21.00.

buylist EV 79.23 > market 79.16 (Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging))

Kaldheim - Collector Booster Display KHM · 2026-09-15 → 2026-09-16 Sealed cash-out above box price $388.58 $507.20 −$85.22 24 h

At detection: asks $388.58 ($415.78 with tax) vs bids $339.56, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$85.22.

buylist EV 507.20 > market 388.58 (Kaldheim - Collector Booster Display)

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain SOS · 2026-09-11 → 2026-09-16 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.89 $13.67 −$14.26 5.0 days

At detection: asks $12.89 ($13.79 with tax) vs bids $12.52, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$14.26.

buylist EV 13.67 > market 12.89 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain)

Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging) NCC · 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15 Sealed cash-out above box price $80.33 $80.46 −$20.97 11.0 days

At detection: asks $80.33 ($85.95 with tax) vs bids $73.98, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$20.97.

buylist EV 80.46 > market 80.33 (Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging))

Icy Manipulator LEA #248 · 2026-07-24 → 2026-09-14 Vendor bid over retail (spike) $674.95 $1,000.00 +$346.61 51.7 days

At detection: asks $1,349.90 ($1,444.39 with tax) vs bids $1,800.00, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $346.61.

Vendor bid at detection: $1,000.00 (cardkingdom) × 2 modeled, vendor buy cap 2, against a $674.95 ask.

spike: bid 1000.00 (cardkingdom) over retail 674.95 (Icy Manipulator)

Lorwyn Eclipsed 60-Card Theme Deck - Angels ECL · 2026-09-11 → 2026-09-13 Sealed cash-out above box price $15.53 $16.09 −$14.71 2.0 days

At detection: asks $15.53 ($16.62 with tax) vs bids $14.90, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$14.71.

buylist EV 16.09 > market 15.53 (Lorwyn Eclipsed 60-Card Theme Deck - Angels)

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain SOS · 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-09 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.95 $13.07 −$14.83 24 h

At detection: asks $12.95 ($13.86 with tax) vs bids $12.02, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$14.83.

buylist EV 13.07 > market 12.95 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain)

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain SOS · 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-08 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.95 $13.23 −$14.66 24 h

At detection: asks $12.95 ($13.86 with tax) vs bids $12.19, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$14.66.

buylist EV 13.23 > market 12.95 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain)

Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2] SOS · 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-08 Sealed cash-out above box price $22.84 $27.96 −$12.18 14.0 days

At detection: asks $22.84 ($24.44 with tax) vs bids $25.25, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$12.18.

buylist EV 27.96 > market 22.84 (Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2])

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie SOS · 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-08 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.06 $14.97 −$12.33 14.0 days

At detection: asks $12.06 ($12.90 with tax) vs bids $13.56, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$12.33.

buylist EV 14.97 > market 12.06 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie)

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain SOS · 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-06 Sealed cash-out above box price $13.27 $13.35 −$14.88 3.9 days

At detection: asks $13.27 ($14.20 with tax) vs bids $12.31, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$14.88.

buylist EV 13.35 > market 13.27 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain)

Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging) NCC · 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-31 Sealed cash-out above box price $80.33 $81.09 −$20.24 2.0 days

At detection: asks $80.33 ($85.95 with tax) vs bids $74.71, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$20.24.

buylist EV 81.09 > market 80.33 (Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging))

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain SOS · 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-31 Sealed cash-out above box price $13.27 $13.57 −$14.67 24 h

At detection: asks $13.27 ($14.20 with tax) vs bids $12.52, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$14.67.

buylist EV 13.57 > market 13.27 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain)

Duskmourn: House of Horror Commander Deck - Jump Scare! DSC · 2026-08-28 → 2026-08-29 Sealed cash-out above box price $60.95 $61.59 −$16.69 24 h

At detection: asks $60.95 ($65.22 with tax) vs bids $57.53, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$16.69.

buylist EV 61.59 > market 60.95 (Duskmourn: House of Horror Commander Deck - Jump Scare!)

Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging) NCC · 2026-08-26 → 2026-08-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $80.33 $80.85 −$21.18 24 h

At detection: asks $80.33 ($85.95 with tax) vs bids $73.77, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$21.18.

buylist EV 80.85 > market 80.33 (Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging))

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain SOS · 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.81 $13.01 −$15.01 47 h

At detection: asks $12.81 ($13.71 with tax) vs bids $11.69, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$15.01.

buylist EV 13.01 > market 12.81 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Lifegain)

Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging) NCC · 2026-08-23 → 2026-08-25 Sealed cash-out above box price $80.33 $80.44 −$21.62 48 h

At detection: asks $80.33 ($85.95 with tax) vs bids $73.33, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$21.62.

buylist EV 80.44 > market 80.33 (Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging))

Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2] SOS · 2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 Sealed cash-out above box price $22.84 $25.45 −$13.92 23 h

At detection: asks $22.84 ($24.44 with tax) vs bids $23.51, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$13.92.

buylist EV 25.45 > market 22.84 (Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2])

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie SOS · 2026-08-24 → 2026-08-25 Sealed cash-out above box price $12.06 $13.25 −$13.65 23 h

At detection: asks $12.06 ($12.90 with tax) vs bids $12.24, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$13.65.

buylist EV 13.25 > market 12.06 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie)

Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2] SOS · 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23 Sealed cash-out above box price $23.77 $25.31 −$15.56 11.0 days

At detection: asks $23.77 ($25.43 with tax) vs bids $22.86, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$15.56.

buylist EV 25.31 > market 23.77 (Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2])

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie SOS · 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23 Sealed cash-out above box price $11.09 $16.33 −$9.85 11.0 days

At detection: asks $11.09 ($11.87 with tax) vs bids $15.01, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$9.85.

buylist EV 16.33 > market 11.09 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie)

Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging) NCC · 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-20 Sealed cash-out above box price $80.33 $81.97 −$17.40 48 h

At detection: asks $80.33 ($85.95 with tax) vs bids $77.55, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$17.40.

buylist EV 81.97 > market 80.33 (Streets of New Capenna Commander Deck - Cabaretti Cacophony (Minimal Packaging))

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Deck - Elven Council LTC · 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-20 Sealed cash-out above box price $66.06 $69.86 −$13.39 23 h

At detection: asks $66.06 ($70.68 with tax) vs bids $66.29, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$13.39.

buylist EV 69.86 > market 66.06 (The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Deck - Elven Council)

Duskmourn: House of Horror Commander Deck - Jump Scare! DSC · 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-20 Sealed cash-out above box price $58.13 $59.53 −$16.71 47 h

At detection: asks $58.13 ($62.20 with tax) vs bids $54.49, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$16.71.

buylist EV 59.53 > market 58.13 (Duskmourn: House of Horror Commander Deck - Jump Scare!)

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Deck - Elven Council LTC · 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-16 Sealed cash-out above box price $66.06 $66.30 −$19.22 2.0 days

At detection: asks $66.06 ($70.68 with tax) vs bids $60.46, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$19.22.

buylist EV 66.30 > market 66.06 (The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Deck - Elven Council)

Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2] SOS · 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-12 Sealed cash-out above box price $24.43 $24.44 −$16.86 9.0 days

At detection: asks $24.43 ($26.14 with tax) vs bids $22.27, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$16.86.

buylist EV 24.44 > market 24.43 (Secrets of Strixhaven Theme Decks [Set of 2])

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie SOS · 2026-07-27 → 2026-08-12 Sealed cash-out above box price $9.97 $15.57 −$9.35 16.0 days

At detection: asks $9.97 ($10.67 with tax) vs bids $14.31, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$9.35.

buylist EV 15.57 > market 9.97 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie)

Commander Legends - Arm for Battle Commander Deck CMR · 2026-08-06 → 2026-08-09 Sealed cash-out above box price $57.38 $58.26 −$15.64 3.0 days

At detection: asks $57.38 ($61.40 with tax) vs bids $54.76, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$15.64.

buylist EV 58.26 > market 57.38 (Commander Legends - Arm for Battle Commander Deck)

FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition) FIC · 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-06 Sealed cash-out above box price $84.69 $171.92 +$2.19 5.0 days

At detection: asks $84.69 ($90.62 with tax) vs bids $101.81, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $2.19.

buylist EV 171.92 > market 84.69 (FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition))

Secret Lair Commander Deck: 20 Ways to Win SLD · 2026-07-30 → 2026-08-06 Sealed cash-out above box price $288.40 $288.84 −$69.64 7.0 days

At detection: asks $288.40 ($308.59 with tax) vs bids $247.95, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$69.64.

buylist EV 288.84 > market 288.40 (Secret Lair Commander Deck: 20 Ways to Win)

Commander Legends - Arm for Battle Commander Deck CMR · 2026-07-30 → 2026-08-06 Sealed cash-out above box price $57.04 $57.59 −$15.56 7.0 days

At detection: asks $57.04 ($61.03 with tax) vs bids $54.47, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$15.56.

buylist EV 57.59 > market 57.04 (Commander Legends - Arm for Battle Commander Deck)

Universes Beyond: Fallout - Scrappy Survivors Commander Deck PIP · 2026-07-27 → 2026-08-06 Sealed cash-out above box price $104.70 $273.76 +$110.21 10.0 days

At detection: asks $104.70 ($112.03 with tax) vs bids $231.24, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $110.21.

buylist EV 273.76 > market 104.70 (Universes Beyond: Fallout - Scrappy Survivors Commander Deck)

FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition) FIC · 2026-07-29 → 2026-07-30 Sealed cash-out above box price $84.69 $172.49 +$5.89 23 h

At detection: asks $84.69 ($90.62 with tax) vs bids $105.51, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $5.89.

buylist EV 172.49 > market 84.69 (FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition))

Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck - Graveyard Overdrive M3C · 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-29 Sealed cash-out above box price $54.36 $56.19 −$16.72 47 h

At detection: asks $54.36 ($58.17 with tax) vs bids $50.45, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$16.72.

buylist EV 56.19 > market 54.36 (Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck - Graveyard Overdrive)

FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition) FIC · 2026-07-27 → 2026-07-28 Sealed cash-out above box price $84.22 $170.31 +$15.35 24 h

At detection: asks $84.22 ($90.12 with tax) vs bids $114.47, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $15.35.

buylist EV 170.31 > market 84.22 (FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition))

Doctor Doom MSH #95 · 2026-07-25 → 2026-07-28 Buylist lag after reprint $3.49 $3.25 −$15.47 2.5 days

At detection: asks $27.92 ($29.87 with tax) vs bids $23.40, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$15.47.

Vendor bid at detection: $3.25 (cardkingdom) × 8 modeled, vendor buy cap 198, against a $3.49 ask.

reprint lag: bid 3.25 (cardkingdom) vs post-reprint ask 3.49 (Doctor Doom)

FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition) FIC · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $83.68 $170.87 +$20.25 2.6 days

At detection: asks $83.68 ($89.54 with tax) vs bids $118.79, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $20.25.

buylist EV 170.87 > market 83.68 (FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck - FINAL FANTASY VII Limit Break (Game Edition))

Marvel Super Heroes - Play Booster Display MSH · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $119.96 $123.25 −$27.57 2.6 days

At detection: asks $119.96 ($128.36 with tax) vs bids $109.79, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$27.57.

buylist EV 123.25 > market 119.96 (Marvel Super Heroes - Play Booster Display)

FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck Display FIC · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $177.28 $307.11 +$35.74 2.6 days

At detection: asks $177.28 ($189.69 with tax) vs bids $234.43, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $35.74.

buylist EV 307.11 > market 177.28 (FINAL FANTASY Commander Deck Display)

Universes Beyond: The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth - Gift Bundle LTR · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $523.82 $568.29 −$24.31 3.0 days

At detection: asks $523.82 ($560.49 with tax) vs bids $545.18, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$24.31.

buylist EV 568.29 > market 523.82 (Universes Beyond: The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth - Gift Bundle)

Bloomburrow - Play Booster Display BLB · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $183.82 $191.65 −$33.05 2.6 days

At detection: asks $183.82 ($196.69 with tax) vs bids $172.64, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$33.05.

buylist EV 191.65 > market 183.82 (Bloomburrow - Play Booster Display)

Modern Horizons 3 - Bundle MH3 · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $133.44 $152.72 −$16.30 2.6 days

At detection: asks $133.44 ($142.78 with tax) vs bids $135.48, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$16.30.

buylist EV 152.72 > market 133.44 (Modern Horizons 3 - Bundle)

Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie SOS · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $9.97 $15.87 −$8.26 3.0 days

At detection: asks $9.97 ($10.67 with tax) vs bids $15.40, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$8.26.

buylist EV 15.87 > market 9.97 (Secrets of Strixhaven 60-Card Theme Deck - Eerie)

Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Case SOC · 2026-07-25 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $181.84 $184.97 −$37.37 34 h

At detection: asks $181.84 ($194.57 with tax) vs bids $166.20, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$37.37.

buylist EV 184.97 > market 181.84 (Secrets of Strixhaven Commander Deck Case)

Modern Horizons 3 - Play Booster Display MH3 · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $272.58 $305.47 −$33.96 2.6 days

At detection: asks $272.58 ($291.66 with tax) vs bids $266.70, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$33.96.

buylist EV 305.47 > market 272.58 (Modern Horizons 3 - Play Booster Display)

Universes Beyond: Assassin's Creed - Beyond Booster Display ACR · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $119.90 $132.23 −$12.44 3.0 days

At detection: asks $119.90 ($128.29 with tax) vs bids $124.85, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net -$12.44.

buylist EV 132.23 > market 119.90 (Universes Beyond: Assassin's Creed - Beyond Booster Display)

Modern Horizons 3 - Play Booster Display Case MH3 · 2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27 Sealed cash-out above box price $1,397.17 $1,832.85 +$94.28 2.6 days

At detection: asks $1,397.17 ($1,494.97 with tax) vs bids $1,598.25, minus $9.00 outbound shipping → net $94.28.

buylist EV 1832.85 > market 1397.17 (Modern Horizons 3 - Play Booster Display Case)