Shards of Alara Sealed · Bundle

Is Shards of Alara - Fat Pack Worth Opening?

Shards of AlaraALA

TCGplayer market · Nov 8, 2026 $370.24

1-year range $325.00$406.48 8.9% below the 1-year high

Value gaugeCard value per dollar of bundle price SKIP

0.09×

EV $34.39, $335.85 less card value than the bundle costs.

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The slot-by-slot breakdown is not available for this bundle yet. Its EV and verdict are unaffected.

About Shards of Alara - Fat Pack

At $370.24 it trades in the middle of its one-year range of $325.00 to $406.48.

Outcome rangeOne bundle

Likely range for one bundle

The middle half of modeled outcomes for a single bundle at today’s market prices. EV is the average; this is the spread around it.

Mean$34.39Equals the bundle EV

Middle half spans$26.11High end minus low end

Modeled from pull rates and market prices. Selling fees and shipping are not included.

The bounds are estimated P25 and P75 values, normal-approximation estimates rather than percentiles measured from opened bundles.

How we price a bundle

Middle half of modeled outcomes

$21.33 to $47.44

Middle half, estimated 25th to 75th percentile
Mean
Bundle price

Best Pulls in Shards of Alara - Fat Pack

Relic of Progenitus is the best pull at $7.63. Pulls are expected copies per bundle; EV is pulls times market price.

All Shards of Alara prices

#	Card	Rarity	Market	Pulls	Odds	EV	Share of EV
1	Relic of ProgenitusMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #218	Common	$7.63	0.77		$5.91	17.2%
2	Tezzeret the SeekerMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #60	Mythic	$36.82	0.07	1 in 15 bundles	$2.43	7.1%
3	IslandMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #236	Common	$0.76	2.40		$1.82	5.3%
4	PlainsMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #233	Common	$0.59	2.40		$1.42	4.1%
5	Ad NauseamMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #63	Rare	$10.59	0.13	1 in 8 bundles	$1.40	4.1%
6	SwampMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #238	Common	$0.53	2.40		$1.27	3.7%
7	Etherium SculptorMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #42	Common	$1.52	0.77		$1.18	3.4%
8	Memory ErosionMain set · Nonfoil · ALA #50	Rare	$7.12	0.13	1 in 8 bundles	$0.94	2.7%
These eight together		$16.37, 47.6% of bundle EV. The other $18.02 comes from the rest of the set.

#1 Relic of Progenitus

ALA #218

Nonfoil

$7.63

EV $5.91 · 0.77 per bundle

#2 Tezzeret the Seeker

ALA #60

Nonfoil

$36.82

EV $2.43 · 1 in 15 bundles

#3 Island

ALA #236

Nonfoil

$0.76

EV $1.82 · 2.40 per bundle

#4 Plains

ALA #233

Nonfoil

$0.59

EV $1.42 · 2.40 per bundle

#5 Ad Nauseam

ALA #63

Nonfoil

$10.59

EV $1.40 · 1 in 8 bundles

#6 Swamp

ALA #238

Nonfoil

$0.53

EV $1.27 · 2.40 per bundle

#7 Etherium Sculptor

ALA #42

Nonfoil

$1.52

EV $1.18 · 0.77 per bundle

#8 Memory Erosion

ALA #50

Nonfoil

$7.12

EV $0.94 · 1 in 8 bundles

1
Relic of Progenitus
ALA #218Nonfoil
$7.63 market · 0.77 per bundle
$5.9117.2% of EV
2
Tezzeret the Seeker
ALA #60Nonfoil
$36.82 market · 0.07 per bundle · 1 in 15 bundles
$2.437.1% of EV
3
Island
ALA #236Nonfoil
$0.76 market · 2.40 per bundle
$1.825.3% of EV
4
Plains
ALA #233Nonfoil
$0.59 market · 2.40 per bundle
$1.424.1% of EV
5
Ad Nauseam
ALA #63Nonfoil
$10.59 market · 0.13 per bundle · 1 in 8 bundles
$1.404.1% of EV
6
Swamp
ALA #238Nonfoil
$0.53 market · 2.40 per bundle
$1.273.7% of EV
7
Etherium Sculptor
ALA #42Nonfoil
$1.52 market · 0.77 per bundle
$1.183.4% of EV
8
Memory Erosion
ALA #50Nonfoil
$7.12 market · 0.13 per bundle · 1 in 8 bundles
$0.942.7% of EV

These eight together$16.37, 47.6% of bundle EV

All Shards of Alara prices

Shards of Alara - Fat Pack Price History

TCGplayer market price for the sealed bundle, past 12 months, against its crack EV.

$200$400Nov 2025Feb 2026MayAugNovBundle price$370.24Crack EV$34.39Crack EV tracked since Oct 71Y high $406.481Y low $325.00

Crack EV has held below bundle price for 33 days.

Now: $370.24; TCGplayer market
1-year high: $406.48; 9.8% above today
1-year low: $325.00; Today is 13.9% higher

The Shards of Alara lineup

Every Shards of Alara product we track, ranked by card value per dollar of sealed price.

Sealed screener

Crack or keep sealed

EV Notes

Verdict: Skip 0.09×

The Shards of Alara - Fat Pack sells for $370.24 and carries $34.39 in expected card value at market, a 0.09× ratio and $335.85 less than the bundle costs.

Five-tier verdictEV ratio

Crack 1.10× and up Open it.

Favored 1.00× to 1.10× Slight crack.

Neutral 0.90× to 1.00× Coin flip.

Hold 0.75× to 0.90× Keep it sealed.

Skip under 0.75× This bundle, 0.09×

Shards of Alara - Fat Pack FAQ