SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
![Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/279540_400w.jpg)
Is Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2] Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-24 · 771 DAYS TRACKED HOLD Keep it sealed.
BOX PRICE $292.00 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $259.73 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $292 / $68 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +0.2%
30D +11.7%
90D +10.1%
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GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2] box price and crack EV, last 771 days: box from $67.83 to $292.00, EV from $0.67 to $261.18.
▼
Crack EV currently sits $32.27 below box price — sealed has the edge today.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
4
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Jared Carthalion
1
Archelos, Lagoon Mystic
1
Atla Palani, Nest Tender
1
Baleful Strix
1
Chromanticore
1
Coiling Oracle
1
O Kagachi, Vengeful Kami
1
Faeburrow Elder
1
Fusion Elemental
1
Zaxara, The Exemplary
1
Hero Of Precinct One
1
Illuna, Apex Of Wishes
1
Knight Of New Alara
1
Maelstrom Archangel
1
Nethroi, Apex Of Death
1
Rienne, Angel Of Rebirth
1
Selvala, Explorer Returned
1
Solemn Simulacrum
1
Surrak Dragonclaw
1
Transguild Courier
1
Glint Eye Nephilim
1
Xyris, The Writhing Storm
1
Cultivate
1
Duneblast
1
Explore
1
Explosive Vegetation
1
Farseek
1
Kodama'S Reach
1
Lavalanche
1
Merciless Eviction
1
Migration Path
1
Painful Truths
1
Radiant Flames
1
Search For Tomorrow
1
Time Wipe
1
Abzan Charm
1
Beast Within
1
Echoing Truth
1
Growth Spiral
1
Terminate
1
Naya Charm
1
Path To Exile
1
Sultai Charm
1
Sylvan Reclamation
2
Arcane Signet
1
Coalition Relic
2
Fellwar Stone
2
Commander'S Sphere
1
Prophetic Prism
1
Abundant Growth
1
Maelstrom Nexus
1
Path To The World Tree
1
Bad River
1
Arcane Sanctum
1
Canopy Vista
1
Cascading Cataracts
1
Cinder Glade
2
Command Tower
1
Crumbling Necropolis
1
Crystal Quarry
2
Evolving Wilds
1
Exotic Orchard
1
Flood Plain
1
Frontier Bivouac
1
Jungle Shrine
1
Krosan Verge
1
Mountain Valley
1
Murmuring Bosk
1
Mystic Monastery
2
Nomad Outpost
1
Opulent Palace
1
Prairie Stream
1
Rocky Tar Pit
1
Sandsteppe Citadel
1
Seaside Citadel
2
Smoldering Marsh
1
Sunken Hollow
2
Terramorphic Expanse
1
Jenson Carthalion, Druid Exile
1
Two Headed Hellkite
1
Tiller Engine
1
Unite The Coalition
1
Fallaji Wayfarer
1
Iridian Maelstrom
1
Mana Cannons
1
Primeval Spawn
1
Obsidian Obelisk
3
Forest
7
Mountain
8
Plains
7
Swamp
1
Dihada, Binder Of Wills
1
Adriana, Captain Of The Guard
1
Alesha, Who Smiles At Death
1
Anafenza, Kin Tree Spirit
1
Arvad The Cursed
1
Ashling The Pilgrim
1
Bell Borca, Spectral Sergeant
1
Captain Lannery Storm
1
Kothophed, Soul Hoarder
1
Drana, Liberator Of Malakir
1
Etali, Primal Storm
1
Garna, The Bloodflame
1
Jazal Goldmane
1
Josu Vess, Lich Knight
1
Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
1
Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin
1
Neheb, Dreadhorde Champion
1
Odric, Lunarch Marshal
1
Tajic, Blade Of The Legion
1
Teshar, Ancestor'S Apostle
1
Traxos, Scourge Of Kroog
1
Zetalpa, Primal Dawn
1
Primevals' Glorious Rebirth
1
Urza'S Ruinous Blast
1
Faithless Looting
1
Kaya'S Wrath
1
Night'S Whisper
1
Read The Bones
1
Ambition'S Cost
1
Bedevil
1
Generous Gift
1
Hero'S Downfall
1
Mortify
1
Thrill Of Possibility
1
Unbreakable Formation
1
Wear // Tear
1
Blackblade Reforged
1
Bontu'S Monument
1
Hazoret'S Monument
1
Hero'S Blade
1
Heroes' Podium
1
Honor Worn Shaku
1
Oketra'S Monument
1
Sol Ring
1
Sword Of The Chosen
1
Tenza, Godo'S Maul
1
The Circle Of Loyalty
1
Day Of Destiny
1
Battlefield Forge
1
Bojuka Bog
1
Boros Garrison
1
Dragonskull Summit
1
Foreboding Ruins
1
Geier Reach Sanitarium
1
Mikokoro, Center Of The Sea
1
Mobilized District
1
Orzhov Basilica
1
Rakdos Carnarium
1
Reliquary Tower
1
Shivan Gorge
1
Shizo, Death'S Storehouse
1
Temple Of Malice
1
Temple Of Silence
1
Temple Of Triumph
1
Tyrite Sanctum
1
Caves Of Koilos
1
Shanid, Sleepers' Scourge
1
Zeriam, Golden Wind
1
Bladewing, Deathless Tyrant
1
Cadric, Soul Kindler
1
Gerrard'S Hourglass Pendant
1
Moira, Urborg Haunt
1
The Peregrine Dynamo
1
Verrak, Warped Sengir
1
The Reaver Cleaver
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
36%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $216.44 83%
Commons & Uncommons $33.79 13%
Lands $8.76 3%
Bonus Sheet $0.74 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-23 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $292.00 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $474.49 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-27 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-26 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-23 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-22 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-21 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-20 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
| 2026-08-19 | $262.64 | $450.00 | $475.00 | $499.99 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-24 HOLD
DOMINARIA UNITED COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
88.9%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $259.73 · Box Price $292.00 7D +0.2%
30D +11.7%
90D +10.1%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-24 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2]
Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2] currently sells for $292.00 at market, up 11.2% over 30 days and up 39.1% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $292.00 (2026-08-31); low: $67.83 (2024-08-20).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2] FAQ
Is Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2] worth opening?
Keep it sealed. Median crack value is $259.73 against a $292.00 box price (0.89× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-24.
What is the best card you can pull from Dominaria United - Commander Decks [Set of 2]?
The top pull by value is The Reaver Cleaver (about $38.48), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
771 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-24.