SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
![The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/488297_400w.jpg)
Is The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4] Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 780 DAYS TRACKED CRACK Open it.
BOX PRICE $321.76 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $362.36 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $329 / $161 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 28 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +5.6%
30D +17.9%
90D +41.1%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4] box price and crack EV, last 780 days: box from $160.68 to $329.14, EV from $205.58 to $365.17.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 28 days — it first crossed on 2026-04-09.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
27
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
éOwyn, Shieldmaiden
1
Aragorn, King Of Gondor
1
Beregond Of The Guard
1
Champions Of Minas Tirith
1
Gilraen, DúNedain Protector
1
Grey Host Reinforcements
1
Lossarnach Captain
1
Archivist Of Gondor
1
Denethor, Stone Seer
1
Fealty To The Realm
1
Call For Aid
1
Gimli Of The Glittering Caves
1
Boromir, Gondor'S Hope
1
éOmer, King Of Rohan
1
Faramir, Steward Of Gondor
1
Forth Eorlingas!
1
Oath Of Eorl
1
Riders Of Rohan
1
Taunt From The Rampart
1
Crown Of Gondor
1
Bastion Protector
1
Dearly Departed
1
Frontline Medic
1
Increasing Devotion
1
Marshal'S Anthem
1
Selfless Squire
1
Unbreakable Formation
1
Verge Rangers
1
Visions Of Glory
1
Weathered Wayfarer
1
Combat Celebrant
1
Court Of Ire
1
Earthquake
1
Flamerush Rider
1
Frontier Warmonger
1
Harsh Mentor
1
Shared Animosity
1
Zealous Conscripts
1
Supreme Verdict
1
Door Of Destinies
1
Vanquisher'S Banner
1
Battlefield Forge
1
Clifftop Retreat
3
Exotic Orchard
1
Furycalm Snarl
1
Glacial Fortress
1
Port Town
1
Prairie Stream
2
Sulfur Falls
1
Throne Of The High City
1
Windbrisk Heights
1
Lost To Legend
1
Erkenbrand, Lord Of Westfold
1
Banishing Light
1
Fiend Hunter
1
Palace Jailer
2
Path To Exile
1
Sunset Revelry
2
Swords To Plowshares
1
Village Bell Ringer
1
Prince Imrahil The Fair
1
Humble Defector
1
ThéOden, King Of Rohan
4
Arcane Signet
4
Commander'S Sphere
1
Heirloom Blade
1
Herald'S Horn
4
Sol Ring
1
Talisman Of Conviction
1
Talisman Of Progress
1
Thought Vessel
1
Wayfarer'S Bauble
4
Command Tower
3
Evolving Wilds
3
Field Of Ruin
3
Path Of Ancestry
3
Rogue'S Passage
1
Secluded Courtyard
2
Terramorphic Expanse
1
Tranquil Cove
1
Wind Scarred Crag
13
Plains
12
Mountain
1
Sauron, Lord Of The Rings
1
Saruman, The White Hand
1
Corsairs Of Umbar
1
Monstrosity Of The Lake
1
Subjugate The Hobbits
1
Shelob, Dread Weaver
1
Cavern Hoard Dragon
1
Orcish Siegemaster
1
Rampaging War Mammoth
1
The Balrog Of Moria
1
GríMa, Saruman'S Footman
1
In The Darkness Bind Them
1
Lidless Gaze
1
Lord Of The NazgûL
1
Moria Scavenger
1
Summons Of Saruman
1
Too Greedily, Too Deep
1
Wake The Dragon
1
Relic Of Sauron
1
The Black Gate
1
Decree Of Pain
1
Languish
1
Living Death
1
Reanimate
1
Blasphemous Act
1
Goblin Dark Dwellers
1
Inferno Titan
1
Knollspine Dragon
1
Scourge Of The Throne
1
Siege Gang Commander
1
Treasure Nabber
1
Hostage Taker
1
Notion Thief
1
Choked Estuary
1
Desolate Lighthouse
1
Dragonskull Summit
1
Drowned Catacomb
1
Foreboding Ruins
1
Frostboil Snarl
1
Smoldering Marsh
1
Sulfurous Springs
1
Sunken Hollow
1
Underground River
1
Treason Of Isengard
1
Bitter Downfall
1
Troll Of Khazad DûM
1
Voracious Fell Beast
1
Fiery Inscription
1
GrishnáKh, Brash Instigator
1
Arcane Denial
1
Boon Of The Wish Giver
1
Consider
1
Deep Analysis
1
Fact Or Fiction
1
Forbidden Alchemy
1
Feed The Swarm
1
Merciless Executioner
1
Revenge Of Ravens
1
Anger
1
Faithless Looting
1
The Mouth Of Sauron
1
Goblin Cratermaker
1
Guttersnipe
1
Shiny Impetus
1
Thrill Of Possibility
1
Extract From Darkness
1
Basalt Monolith
1
Everflowing Chalice
1
Mind Stone
1
Worn Powerstone
1
Crumbling Necropolis
10
Swamp
1
Frodo, Adventurous Hobbit
1
Sam, Loyal Attendant
1
Field Tested Frying Pan
1
The Gaffer
1
Gwaihir, Greatest Of The Eagles
1
Of Herbs And Stewed Rabbit
1
Gollum, Obsessed Stalker
1
Lobelia, Defender Of Bag End
1
Rapacious Guest
1
Assemble The Entmoot
1
Feasting Hobbit
1
Motivated Pony
1
Prize Pig
1
Banquet Guests
1
Bilbo, Birthday Celebrant
1
Farmer Cotton
1
Merry, Warden Of Isengard
1
Pippin, Warden Of Isengard
1
Treebeard, Gracious Host
1
Hithlain Rope
1
Call For Unity
1
Dawn Of Hope
1
Fell The Mighty
1
Fumigate
1
Mentor Of The Meek
1
Sanguine Bond
1
Toxic Deluge
1
Birds Of Paradise
1
Gilded Goose
1
Woodfall Primus
1
Anguished Unmaking
1
Chromatic Lantern
1
Trading Post
1
Well Of Lost Dreams
1
Canopy Vista
1
Fortified Village
1
Isolated Chapel
1
Murmuring Bosk
1
Necroblossom Snarl
1
Scattered Groves
1
Shineshadow Snarl
1
Sunpetal Grove
1
Eagles Of The North
1
Rosie Cotton Of South Lane
1
Shire Shirriff
1
Mirkwood Bats
1
Generous Ent
1
Revive The Shire
1
Butterbur, Bree Innkeeper
1
Crypt Incursion
1
Go For The Throat
1
Night'S Whisper
2
Cultivate
1
Essence Warden
1
Farseek
1
Great Oak Guardian
1
Harmonize
1
Orchard Strider
1
Prosperous Innkeeper
1
Shire Terrace
1
Tireless Provisioner
1
Mortify
1
Savvy Hunter
1
Pristine Talisman
1
Access Tunnel
2
Ash Barrens
1
Ghost Quarter
1
Graypelt Refuge
1
Sandsteppe Citadel
1
Scoured Barrens
23
Forest
1
Galadriel, Elven Queen
1
Gandalf, Westward Voyager
1
Raise The Palisade
1
Trap The Trespassers
1
Arwen, Weaver Of Hope
1
Galadhrim Ambush
1
Haldir, LóRien Lieutenant
1
Legolas Greenleaf
1
Mirkwood Elk
1
Windswift Slice
1
CíRdan The Shipwright
1
Elrond Of The White Council
1
Erestor Of The Council
1
Mirkwood Trapper
1
Radagast, Wizard Of Wilds
1
Sail Into The West
1
Song Of EäRendil
1
LothlóRien Blade
1
Model Of Unity
1
Colossal Whale
1
Devastation Tide
1
Mystic Confluence
1
Plea For Power
1
Swan Song
1
Asceticism
1
Elvish Archdruid
1
Elvish Piper
1
Elvish Warmaster
1
Genesis Wave
1
Heroic Intervention
1
Hornet Queen
1
Inscription Of Abundance
1
Overwhelming Stampede
1
Realm Seekers
1
Seeds Of Renewal
1
Sylvan Offering
1
Flooded Grove
1
Rejuvenating Springs
1
Vineglimmer Snarl
1
LóRien Revealed
1
Celeborn The Wise
1
Elven Farsight
1
Wose Pathfinder
1
Learn From The Past
1
Opt
1
Preordain
1
Arbor Elf
1
Beast Within
1
Elvish Mystic
1
Elvish Visionary
1
Farhaven Elf
1
Mirror Of Galadriel
1
Lignify
1
Paradise Druid
1
Rampant Growth
1
Reclamation Sage
1
Wood Elves
1
Growth Spiral
1
Lightning Greaves
1
Whispersilk Cloak
1
Lonely Sandbar
1
Thornwood Falls
1
Tranquil Thicket
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
15%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $264.65 73%
Commons & Uncommons $82.57 23%
Bonus Sheet $10.36 3%
Lands $4.78 1%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $321.76 | $315.00 | $350.00 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | $321.94 | $315.00 | $350.00 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | $321.90 | $315.00 | $359.99 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | $321.82 | $315.00 | $359.99 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | $321.78 | $315.00 | $359.99 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | $322.10 | $315.00 | $360.00 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | $322.26 | $310.00 | $359.99 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | $315.17 | $319.00 | $359.99 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | $317.73 | $319.00 | $360.01 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | $317.60 | $316.49 | $360.00 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | $316.97 | $315.00 | $360.02 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | $316.80 | $316.49 | $360.00 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | $316.44 | $309.99 | $360.02 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | $316.32 | $309.99 | $369.69 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | $316.32 | $309.99 | $364.86 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | $319.93 | $309.99 | $360.02 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | $320.13 | $309.99 | $360.02 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | $320.19 | $309.99 | $360.02 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | $317.95 | $309.99 | $369.69 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | $317.73 | $309.99 | $369.69 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | $317.29 | $309.99 | $364.86 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | $317.44 | $309.97 | $369.94 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | $317.44 | $309.97 | $369.94 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | $316.28 | $309.97 | $371.45 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | $314.32 | $309.97 | $382.47 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | $311.79 | $309.76 | $382.47 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | $310.64 | $309.70 | $382.47 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | $310.64 | $309.70 | $382.47 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | $310.01 | $309.70 | $372.45 | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | $310.14 | $309.70 | $369.82 | $1,000.00 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 CRACK
TALES OF MIDDLE-EARTH COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
112.6%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $362.36 · Box Price $321.76 7D +5.6%
30D +17.9%
90D +41.1%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4]
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4] currently sells for $321.76 at market, up 2.4% over 30 days and up 24.8% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $329.14 (2026-02-10); low: $160.68 (2025-04-28).
COMMON QUESTIONS
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4] FAQ
Is The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4] worth opening?
Open it. Median crack value is $362.36 against a $321.76 box price (1.13× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Commander Decks [Set of 4]?
The top pull by value is Cavern-Hoard Dragon (about $21.97), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
780 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.