SEALED · COLLECTOR COMMANDER DECK
Is Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition) Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 782 DAYS TRACKED CRACK Open it.
BOX PRICE $773.37 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $1,243.49 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $773 / $439 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 20 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +0.8%
30D +905.5%
90D +13.2%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition) box price and crack EV, last 782 days: box from $438.95 to $773.37, EV from $123.62 to $1,472.78.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 20 days — it first crossed on 2026-09-03.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
16
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Satya, Aetherflux Genius
1
Cayth, Famed Mechanist
1
Sphinx Of The Revelation
1
Filigree Racer
1
Localized Destruction
1
Aether Refinery
1
Hourglass Of The Lost
1
Salvation Colossus
1
Blaster Hulk
1
Razorfield Ripper
1
Silverquill Lecturer
1
Overclocked Electromancer
1
Stone Idol Generator
1
Aurora Shifter
1
Conversion Apparatus
1
Gonti'S Aether Heart
1
Lightning Runner
1
Aethertide Whale
1
Aethergeode Miner
1
Aethersphere Harvester
1
Bident Of Thassa
1
Temple Of Enlightenment
2
Battlefield Forge
1
Myr Battlesphere
1
Grenzo, Havoc Raiser
1
Brudiclad, Telchor Engineer
1
Coveted Jewel
1
Goldspan Dragon
1
Legion Loyalty
1
Mystic Gate
1
Akroma'S Will
2
Adarkar Wastes
2
Shivan Reef
1
Coalition Relic
1
Combustible Gearhulk
1
Aetherworks Marvel
1
Angel Of Invention
1
Confiscation Coup
1
Aetherstorm Roc
1
Aethersquall Ancient
1
Frostboil Snarl
1
Austere Command
1
Furycalm Snarl
1
Midnight Clock
1
Professional Face Breaker
1
Farewell
1
Port Town
1
Temple Of Triumph
1
Solemn Simulacrum
1
Temple Of Epiphany
1
Prairie Stream
1
Skyclave Apparition
1
Castle Vantress
1
Jolted Awake
1
Bespoke Battlewagon
1
Roil Cartographer
1
Unstable Amulet
1
Amped Raptor
1
Solar Transformer
1
Scurry Of Gremlins
1
Izzet Generatorium
1
Talisman Of Conviction
1
Tezzeret'S Gambit
1
Izzet Boilerworks
1
Azorius Chancery
1
Talisman Of Progress
4
Command Tower
2
Burnished Hart
4
Arcane Signet
4
Sol Ring
1
Era Of Innovation
1
Aether Hub
1
Decoction Module
1
Glimmer Of Genius
1
Whirler Virtuoso
1
Talisman Of Creativity
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Wayfarer'S Bauble
2
Demolition Field
1
Mystic Monastery
11
Plains
9
Mountain
1
Ulalek, Fused Atrocity
1
Azlask, The Swelling Scourge
1
Ulamog'S Dreadsire
1
Benthic Anomaly
1
Eldritch Immunity
1
Selective Obliteration
1
Angelic Aberration
1
Bismuth Mindrender
1
Hideous Taskmaster
1
Twins Of Discord
1
Mutated Cultist
1
Eldrazi Confluence
1
Spawnbed Protector
1
Chittering Dispatcher
1
Inversion Behemoth
1
Ugin, The Ineffable
1
Eldrazi Conscription
1
Cascading Cataracts
1
Eldrazi Monument
1
Sire Of Stagnation
1
Shrine Of The Forsaken Gods
1
Ugin'S Insight
1
Drowner Of Hope
1
Return Of The Wildspeaker
1
Tendo Ice Bridge
1
Llanowar Wastes
1
Underground River
1
Oblivion Sower
1
Karplusan Forest
2
Yavimaya Coast
1
Sulfurous Springs
1
Caves Of Koilos
1
Imprisoned In The Moon
2
Temple Of Malady
1
Temple Of Silence
1
Morophon, The Boundless
1
Kozilek'S Return
1
World Breaker
1
Ruins Of Oran Rief
1
Sifter Of Skulls
1
Endbringer
1
Corrupted Crossroads
1
Deepfathom Skulker
1
Vile Redeemer
1
Eldrazi Displacer
1
Mystic Forge
1
All Is Dust
1
Rishkar'S Expertise
1
Awakening Zone
1
Eldrazi Temple
1
Elder Deep Fiend
1
Bonders' Enclave
2
Exotic Orchard
1
Forsaken Monument
1
Snapping Voidcraw
1
Herald'S Horn
1
Everflowing Chalice
1
Glaring Fleshraker
1
Wastescape Battlemage
1
Crib Swap
1
Titans' Vanguard
2
Talisman Of Resilience
1
Spawning Bed
1
Ulamog'S Nullifier
1
Tectonic Edge
1
Reliquary Tower
1
Artisan Of Kozilek
1
Opal Palace
1
Dreamstone Hedron
1
Tomb Of The Spirit Dragon
1
Secluded Courtyard
1
Idol Of Oblivion
1
Wastes
1
Talisman Of Curiosity
2
Talisman Of Impulse
1
Warping Wail
1
Talisman Of Dominance
1
Ash Barrens
1
Ancient Stirrings
1
Ulamog'S Crusher
1
Garruk'S Uprising
1
Suffer The Past
1
Skittering Invasion
2
Path Of Ancestry
1
Unclaimed Territory
5
Swamp
10
Forest
1
Disa The Restless
1
Coram, The Undertaker
1
Bloodbraid Challenger
1
Broodmate Tyrant
1
Tempt With Mayhem
1
Gluttonous Hellkite
1
Pyrogoyf
1
Polygoyf
1
Barrowgoyf
1
Sawhorn Nemesis
1
Infested Thrinax
1
Final Act
1
Siege Gang Lieutenant
1
Tarmogoyf Nest
1
Exterminator Magmarch
1
Liliana, Death'S Majesty
1
Maelstrom Pulse
1
Junji, The Midnight Sky
1
Garruk, Apex Predator
1
The Reaver Cleaver
1
Deadbridge Chant
1
Kolaghan'S Command
1
Izoni, Thousand Eyed
1
Lhurgoyf
1
Selvala, Heart Of The Wilds
1
Kessig Wolf Run
1
Archon Of Cruelty
1
Maskwood Nexus
1
Grist, The Hunger Tide
1
Ignoble Hierarch
1
Necrogoyf
1
Mortivore
1
Chandra'S Ignition
1
Viridescent Bog
1
Find // Finality
1
Mossfire Valley
1
Ziatora, The Incinerator
1
Canyon Slough
1
Cinder Glade
1
Shadowblood Ridge
1
Sheltered Thicket
1
Smoldering Marsh
1
Temple Of Abandon
1
Temple Of Malice
1
Raging Ravine
1
Terminate
1
Grisly Salvage
1
Yavimaya Elder
1
Bituminous Blast
1
Bloodbraid Elf
1
Eternal Witness
1
Tainted Wood
1
Deathreap Ritual
1
Syr Konrad, The Grim
1
Grapple With The Past
1
Dakmor Salvage
1
Accursed Marauder
1
Brawn
1
Faithless Looting
1
Rampant Growth
1
Anger
1
Tranquil Thicket
1
Stitcher'S Supplier
1
Graveshifter
1
Altar Of The Goyf
1
Syphon Mind
1
Talisman Of Indulgence
1
Sakura Tribe Elder
1
Terramorphic Expanse
1
Tainted Peak
1
Riveteers Overlook
1
Riveteers Charm
1
Forgotten Cave
1
Lightning Greaves
1
Evolving Wilds
1
Omo, Queen Of Vesuva
1
Jyoti, Moag Ancient
1
March From Velis Vel
1
Wonderscape Sage
1
Desert Warfare
1
Trenchpost
1
Sage Of The Maze
1
Lazotep Quarry
1
Rampant Frogantua
1
Sunken Palace
1
Horizon Of Progress
1
Planar Nexus
1
Aggressive Biomancy
1
Talon Gates Of Madara
1
Hydroid Krasis
1
Terastodon
1
Lair Of The Hydra
1
Nissa, Steward Of Elements
1
Magus Of The Candelabra
1
Lumbering Falls
1
Blast Zone
1
Apex Devastator
1
Dreamroot Cascade
1
Summary Dismissal
1
Flooded Grove
1
Hour Of Promise
1
Ramunap Excavator
1
Hydra Broodmaster
1
Drown In Dreams
1
Vineglimmer Snarl
1
Vivien Reid
1
Yavimaya, Cradle Of Growth
1
Dryad Of The Ilysian Grove
1
Mirage Mirror
1
Overflowing Basin
1
Temple Of Mystery
1
Chromatic Lantern
1
Oblivion Stone
1
Scute Swarm
1
Ulvenwald Hydra
1
Evacuation
1
Replication Technique
1
Finale Of Revelation
1
Mana Reflection
1
Uro, Titan Of Nature'S Wrath
1
Curse Of The Swine
1
Vesuva
1
Dark Depths
1
Thespian'S Stage
1
Avenger Of Zendikar
1
Seer'S Sundial
1
Rampaging Baloths
1
Fog Bank
1
Urza'S Power Plant
1
Urza'S Tower
1
Urza'S Mine
1
Satyr Wayfinder
1
Arcane Denial
1
Simic Guildgate
1
Treasure Cruise
1
Basilisk Gate
1
Beast Within
1
Tatyova, Benthic Druid
1
Propaganda
1
Simic Growth Chamber
1
Floriferous Vinewall
1
Desert Of The Indomitable
1
Hashep Oasis
1
Expedition Map
1
Hidden Cataract
1
Hidden Nursery
1
Volatile Fault
1
Growth Spiral
1
Elvish Rejuvenator
1
Urban Evolution
1
Harmonize
1
Thornwood Falls
1
Cloudpost
1
Sylvan Scrying
1
Acidic Slime
1
Pongify
1
Lush Oasis
1
Skullwinder
1
Desert Of The Mindful
1
Poison Dart Frog
1
Glimmerpost
1
Eureka Moment
1
Quandrix Campus
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
21%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $551.11 44%
Wildcard / Treatment $422.25 34%
Commons & Uncommons $159.17 13%
Lands $62.78 5%
Bonus Sheet $48.18 4%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $773.37 | $795.00 | $832.47 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $773.37 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $773.37 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $773.37 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $773.37 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $768.10 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $768.10 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-14 | $768.10 | $795.00 | $832.47 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-12 | $768.10 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-11 | $768.10 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | $768.10 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-08 | $681.82 | $795.00 | $832.47 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $681.82 | $795.00 | $832.47 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $681.82 | $795.00 | $832.47 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $681.82 | $795.00 | $832.47 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $681.82 | $795.00 | $827.49 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $681.82 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $668.92 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $657.34 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $657.34 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $657.34 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,799.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $647.16 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | $647.16 | $795.00 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-27 | $615.86 | $795.00 | $824.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-26 | $615.86 | $795.00 | $824.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | $615.86 | $800.00 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | $615.86 | $800.00 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-23 | $607.45 | $800.00 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-22 | $607.45 | $800.00 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-21 | $600.34 | $799.99 | $829.99 | $1,299.99 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-22 CRACK
MODERN HORIZONS 3 COMMANDER · COLLECTOR COMMANDER DECK
160.8%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $1,243.49 · Box Price $773.37 7D +0.8%
30D +905.5%
90D +13.2%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-22 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition)
Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition) currently sells for $773.37 at market, up 27.3% over 30 days and up 40.9% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $773.37 (2026-09-18); low: $438.95 (2025-02-22).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition) FAQ
Is Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition) worth opening?
Open it. Median crack value is $1,243.49 against a $773.37 box price (1.61× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-22.
What is the best card you can pull from Modern Horizons 3 Commander Deck Display (Collector's Edition)?
The top pull by value is Talon Gates of Madara (about $149.03), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
782 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.