SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
Is Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-23 · 776 DAYS TRACKED HOLD Keep it sealed.
BOX PRICE $592.55 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $512.22 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $593 / $123 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -0.3%
30D +2.6%
90D +7.6%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display box price and crack EV, last 776 days: box from $122.54 to $592.55, EV from $262.53 to $514.78.
▼
Crack EV currently sits $80.33 below box price — sealed has the edge today.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
22
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Stella Lee, Wild Card
1
Eris, Roar Of The Storm
1
Archmage Emeritus
1
Baral'S Expertise
1
Tezzeret'S Gambit
1
Midnight Clock
1
Haughty Djinn
1
Winged Boots
1
Talrand, Sky Summoner
1
Octavia, Living Thesis
1
Thunderclap Drake
1
Lock And Load
1
Forger'S Foundry
1
Finale Of Revelation
2
Curse Of The Swine
1
Mizzix'S Mastery
1
Chaos Warp
1
Crackling Spellslinger
1
Pyretic Charge
1
Smoldering Stagecoach
1
Elemental Eruption
1
Rousing Refrain
1
Cursed Mirror
1
Bloodthirsty Adversary
1
Finale Of Promise
1
Arcane Bombardment
1
Niv Mizzet, Parun
1
Kaza, Roil Chaser
1
Shark Typhoon
1
Galvanic Iteration
1
Epic Experiment
1
Veyran, Voice Of Duality
1
Leyline Dowser
3
Exotic Orchard
1
Shivan Reef
1
Sulfur Falls
1
Frostboil Snarl
1
Temple Of Epiphany
1
Cascade Bluffs
1
Ferrous Lake
1
Treasure Cruise
1
Preordain
1
Ponder
1
Murmuring Mystic
1
Deep Analysis
1
Radical Idea
1
Opt
1
Think Twice
1
Arcane Denial
1
Pteramander
1
Vandalblast
1
Pongify
1
Serum Visions
1
Faithless Looting
1
Big Score
1
Storm Kiln Artist
1
Young Pyromancer
1
Electrostatic Field
1
Guttersnipe
1
Volcanic Torrent
1
Windfall
1
Goblin Electromancer
1
Third Path Iconoclast
1
Expressive Iteration
4
Arcane Signet
1
Izzet Signet
4
Sol Ring
4
Command Tower
2
Temple Of The False God
2
Reliquary Tower
1
Izzet Boilerworks
1
Propaganda
19
Mountain
1
Yuma, Proud Protector
1
Kirri, Talented Sprout
1
Scavenger Grounds
1
Sun Titan
1
Omnath, Locus Of Rage
1
Descend Upon The Sinful
1
Chromatic Lantern
1
Marshal'S Anthem
1
Sheltered Thicket
1
Scute Swarm
1
Hour Of Promise
1
Oracle Of Mul Daya
1
Ramunap Excavator
1
Scattered Groves
1
World Shaper
1
Nesting Dragon
1
Turntimber Sower
1
Sevinne'S Reclamation
1
Ancient Greenwarden
1
Titania, Protector Of Argoth
1
Return Of The Wildspeaker
1
Perennial Behemoth
1
Avenger Of Zendikar
1
Hazezon, Shaper Of Sand
1
Escape To The Wilds
1
Genesis Hydra
1
Sunscorched Divide
1
The Mending Of Dominaria
1
Decimate
1
Sand Scout
1
Embrace The Unknown
1
Dune Chanter
1
Cataclysmic Prospecting
1
Vengeful Regrowth
1
Angel Of Indemnity
1
Cactus Preserve
1
Rumbleweed
1
Terramorphic Expanse
1
Evolving Wilds
1
Swiftfoot Boots
1
Explore
1
Satyr Wayfinder
1
Perpetual Timepiece
1
Crawling Sensation
1
Painted Bluffs
1
Magmatic Insight
1
Krosan Verge
1
Desert Of The True
1
Skullwinder
1
Desert Of The Indomitable
1
Jungle Shrine
1
Bitter Reunion
1
Desert Of The Fervent
1
Valorous Stance
1
Dunes Of The Dead
1
Shefet Dunes
1
Hashep Oasis
1
Elvish Rejuvenator
1
Winding Way
1
Springbloom Druid
1
Unholy Heat
1
Thrilling Discovery
1
Electric Revelation
1
Eccentric Farmer
1
Harrow
1
Ramunap Ruins
1
Path To Exile
2
Requisition Raid
1
Bovine Intervention
1
Map The Frontier
1
Conduit Pylons
1
Mirage Mesa
1
Wreck And Rebuild
1
Angel Of The Ruins
1
Bristling Backwoods
1
Creosote Heath
1
Abraded Bluffs
1
Scaretiller
1
Nantuko Cultivator
8
Plains
11
Forest
1
Gonti, Canny Acquisitor
1
Felix Five Boots
1
Thieving Skydiver
1
Sage Of The Beyond
1
Ghostly Pilferer
1
Diluvian Primordial
1
Stolen Goods
1
Dazzling Sphinx
1
Arcane Heist
1
Smirking Spelljacker
1
Mind'S Dilation
1
Gonti, Lord Of Luxury
1
Predators' Hour
1
Brainstealer Dragon
1
Cunning Rhetoric
1
Thieving Amalgam
1
Orochi Soul Reaver
1
Thieving Varmint
1
Heartless Conscription
1
Nashi, Moon Sage'S Scion
1
Baleful Mastery
1
Ohran Frostfang
1
Savvy Trader
1
Tower Winder
1
Cazur, Ruthless Stalker
1
Silent Blade Oni
1
Hostage Taker
1
Edric, Spymaster Of Trest
1
Fallen Shinobi
1
Cold Eyed Selkie
1
Siphon Insight
1
Extract Brain
1
Shadowmage Infiltrator
1
Baleful Strix
1
Culling Ritual
1
Thief Of Sanity
1
Villainous Wealth
1
The Mimeoplasm
1
Plasm Capture
1
Ukkima, Stalking Shadow
1
Bladegriff Prototype
1
Chaos Wand
1
Dream Thief'S Bandana
1
Oblivion Sower
1
Overflowing Basin
1
Drowned Catacomb
1
Temple Of Deceit
1
Temple Of Malady
1
Darkwater Catacombs
1
Fetid Pools
1
Yavimaya Coast
1
Viridescent Bog
1
Underground River
1
Sunken Hollow
1
Temple Of Mystery
1
Darkslick Shores
1
Flooded Grove
1
Twilight Mire
1
Llanowar Wastes
1
Slither Blade
1
Whirler Rogue
1
Triton Shorestalker
2
Feed The Swarm
1
Silhana Ledgewalker
1
Rampant Growth
1
Kodama'S Reach
1
Void Attendant
1
Three Visits
1
Putrefy
1
Trygon Predator
1
Doc Aurlock, Grizzled Genius
1
Darksteel Ingot
1
Fellwar Stone
1
Prismatic Lens
1
Access Tunnel
1
Dimir Aqueduct
1
Opulent Palace
10
Swamp
1
Olivia, Opulent Outlaw
1
Vihaan, Goldwaker
1
Council'S Judgment
1
Heliod'S Intervention
1
Angelic Sell Sword
1
We Ride At Dawn
1
Massacre Girl
1
Fain, The Broker
1
Witch Of The Moors
1
Nighthawk Scavenger
1
Curtains' Call
1
Misfortune Teller
1
Painful Truths
1
Kamber, The Plunderer
1
Ogre Slumlord
1
Hex
1
Mari, The Killing Quill
1
Discreet Retreat
1
Charred Graverobber
1
Back In Town
1
Veinwitch Coven
1
Rankle, Master Of Pranks
1
Dire Fleet Ravager
1
Mirror Entity
1
Dire Fleet Daredevil
1
Captain Lannery Storm
1
Seize The Spotlight
1
Grenzo, Havoc Raiser
1
Angrath'S Marauders
1
Captivating Crew
1
Rain Of Riches
1
Laurine, The Diversion
1
Mass Mutiny
1
Dead Before Sunrise
1
Graywater'S Fixer
1
Life Insurance
1
Breena, The Demagogue
1
Queen Marchesa
1
Idol Of Oblivion
1
Academy Manufactor
1
Bounty Board
1
Fetid Heath
1
Command Beacon
1
Vault Of The Archangel
1
Dragonskull Summit
1
Temple Of Silence
1
Temple Of Malice
1
Temple Of Triumph
1
Clifftop Retreat
1
Isolated Chapel
1
Bonders' Enclave
1
Caves Of Koilos
1
Battlefield Forge
1
Sulfurous Springs
1
Rugged Prairie
1
Desolate Mire
1
Shadowblood Ridge
1
Canyon Slough
1
Smoldering Marsh
1
Blackcleave Cliffs
1
Mistmeadow Skulk
1
Changeling Outcast
1
Deadly Dispute
1
Morbid Opportunist
1
Aetherborn Marauder
1
Tenured Inkcaster
1
Shoot The Sheriff
1
Lightning Greaves
1
Impulsive Pilferer
1
Shiny Impetus
1
Humble Defector
1
Glittering Stockpile
1
Boros Charm
1
Trailblazer'S Boots
1
Bandit'S Haul
1
Orzhov Signet
1
Rakdos Signet
1
Bojuka Bog
1
Path Of Ancestry
1
Rogue'S Passage
1
Demolition Field
1
Tainted Peak
1
Sunhome, Fortress Of The Legion
1
Nomad Outpost
CONCENTRATION · FLOOR RISK top 3 cards
8%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $371.73 73%
Commons & Uncommons $104.47 20%
Lands $17.53 3%
Wildcard / Treatment $17.49 3%
Bonus Sheet $1.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | $592.55 | $599.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | $592.55 | $620.00 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $589.06 | $620.00 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $589.06 | $620.00 | $699.84 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $589.06 | $620.00 | $699.84 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $589.06 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $589.06 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $589.06 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-14 | $589.06 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-12 | $574.14 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-11 | $574.14 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | $561.71 | $629.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-08 | $553.04 | $639.95 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $699.69 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $699.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $673.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $673.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $674.50 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $699.99 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $700.00 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $700.00 | $1,299.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $699.99 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | $547.05 | $624.99 | $699.99 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-27 | $543.42 | $624.99 | $699.84 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-26 | $543.42 | $624.99 | $699.84 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | $543.42 | $624.99 | $699.84 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | $543.42 | $624.99 | $674.35 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-23 | $543.42 | $624.99 | $674.35 | $799.99 |
| 2026-08-22 | $543.42 | $624.99 | $694.85 | $799.99 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-23 HOLD
OUTLAWS OF THUNDER JUNCTION COMMANDER · COMMANDER DECK
86.4%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $512.22 · Box Price $592.55 7D -0.3%
30D +2.6%
90D +7.6%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-23 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display
Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display currently sells for $592.55 at market, up 9.0% over 30 days and up 28.1% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $592.55 (2026-09-22); low: $122.54 (2024-08-08).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display FAQ
Is Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display worth opening?
Keep it sealed. Median crack value is $512.22 against a $592.55 box price (0.86× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-23.
What is the best card you can pull from Outlaws of Thunder Junction Commander Deck Display?
The top pull by value is Seize the Spotlight (about $16.37), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
776 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-23.