SEALED · COMMANDER DECK
Is Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5 Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-23 · 772 DAYS TRACKED NEUTRAL Coin flip.
BOX PRICE $122.19 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $115.79 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $199 / $85 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 0 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D -0.4%
30D +7.9%
90D +49.8%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5 box price and crack EV, last 772 days: box from $85.20 to $199.46, EV from $72.83 to $153.68.
▼
Crack EV currently sits $6.40 below box price — sealed has the edge today.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
31
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Ajani, Caller Of The Pride
1
Citywide Bust
1
Commander'S Insignia
1
Dawn Of Hope
1
Dictate Of Heliod
1
Felidar Retreat
1
Mentor Of The Meek
1
White Sun'S Zenith
1
Champion Of Lambholt
1
Citanul Hierophants
1
Collective Unconscious
1
Harvest Season
1
Hornet Nest
1
Hornet Queen
1
Rishkar, Peema Renegade
1
Scavenging Ooze
1
Thunderfoot Baloth
1
Verdant Force
1
Aura Mutation
1
Camaraderie
1
Collective Blessing
1
Dauntless Escort
1
March Of The Multitudes
1
Trostani Discordant
1
Idol Of Oblivion
1
Slate Of Ancestry
1
Canopy Vista
1
Fortified Village
1
Temple Of Plenty
1
Conclave Tribunal
1
Devouring Light
1
Path To Exile
1
Rootborn Defenses
1
Valor In Akros
1
Avacyn'S Pilgrim
1
Curse Of Bounty
1
Eternal Witness
1
Farhaven Elf
1
Great Oak Guardian
2
Harmonize
1
Jade Mage
1
Jaspera Sentinel
1
Karametra'S Favor
1
Leafkin Druid
1
Loyal Guardian
1
Nissa'S Expedition
1
Nullmage Shepherd
1
Overrun
1
Overwhelming Instinct
1
Presence Of Gond
1
Reclamation Sage
1
Scatter The Seeds
1
Sporemound
1
Voice Of Many
1
Maja, Bretagard Protector
1
Selesnya Evangel
1
Selesnya Guildmage
1
Sylvan Reclamation
5
Arcane Signet
5
Commander'S Sphere
5
Sol Ring
1
Talisman Of Unity
1
Blossoming Sands
5
Command Tower
1
Elfhame Palace
1
Graypelt Refuge
1
Holdout Settlement
1
Tranquil Expanse
1
Vitu Ghazi, The City Tree
27
Forest
29
Plains
1
Archon Of Redemption
1
Cartographer'S Hawk
1
Cleansing Nova
1
Emeria Angel
1
Gideon Jura
1
Hanged Executioner
1
Remorseful Cleric
1
Sephara, Sky'S Blade
1
Steel Plume Marshal
1
Storm Herd
1
True Conviction
1
Angler Turtle
1
Bident Of Thassa
1
Diluvian Primordial
1
Ever Watching Threshold
1
Faerie Formation
1
Gravitational Shift
1
Inspired Sphinx
1
Sharding Sphinx
1
Sphinx Of Enlightenment
1
Windreader Sphinx
1
Absorb
1
Skycat Sovereign
1
Sphinx'S Revelation
1
Time Wipe
1
Port Town
1
Prairie Stream
1
Temple Of Enlightenment
1
Aven Gagglemaster
1
Banishing Light
1
Condemn
1
Crush Contraband
1
Disenchant
1
Generous Gift
1
Kangee'S Lieutenant
1
Rally Of Wings
1
Soul Snare
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Vow Of Duty
1
Aetherize
1
Counterspell
1
Favorable Winds
1
Negate
1
Tide Skimmer
1
Warden Of Evos Isle
1
Winged Words
1
Cloudblazer
1
Empyrean Eagle
1
Jubilant Skybonder
1
Kangee, Sky Warden
1
Migratory Route
1
Staggering Insight
1
Thunderclap Wyvern
1
Azorius Signet
1
Pilgrim'S Eye
1
Sky Diamond
1
Skyscanner
1
Talisman Of Progress
1
Thought Vessel
1
Coastal Tower
1
Meandering River
1
Sejiri Refuge
1
Tranquil Cove
1
Archfiend Of Depravity
1
Bloodgift Demon
1
Deadly Tempest
1
Dredge The Mire
1
Ob Nixilis Reignited
1
Profane Command
1
Rakshasa Debaser
1
Reign Of The Pit
1
Sangromancer
1
Scythe Specter
1
Sepulchral Primordial
1
Soul Shatter
1
Titan Hunter
1
Blasphemous Act
1
Brash Taunter
1
Chaos Warp
1
Combustible Gearhulk
1
Dictate Of The Twin Gods
1
Fiery Confluence
1
Geode Rager
1
Kazuul, Tyrant Of The Cliffs
1
Magmatic Force
1
Sunbird'S Invocation
1
Tectonic Giant
1
Wild Ricochet
1
Wildfire Devils
1
Kaervek The Merciless
1
Spiteful Visions
1
Stormfist Crusader
1
Theater Of Horrors
1
Coveted Jewel
1
Solemn Simulacrum
1
Foreboding Ruins
1
Smoldering Marsh
1
Stensia Bloodhall
1
Temple Of Malice
1
Ambition'S Cost
2
Feed The Swarm
1
Indulgent Tormentor
1
Read The Bones
1
Sign In Blood
1
Syphon Mind
1
Vampire Nighthawk
1
Abrade
1
Explosion Of Riches
1
Guttersnipe
1
Hate Mirage
1
Mana Geyser
1
Thermo Alchemist
1
Breath Of Malfegor
1
Rakdos Charm
1
Terminate
1
Unlicensed Disintegration
1
Burnished Hart
1
Lightning Greaves
1
Nihil Spellbomb
1
Rakdos Signet
1
Talisman Of Indulgence
2
Wayfarer'S Bauble
1
Worn Powerstone
1
Akoum Refuge
1
Bloodfell Caves
1
Cinder Barrens
1
Molten Slagheap
1
Urborg Volcano
33
Swamp
32
Mountain
1
Akoum Hellkite
1
Chain Reaction
1
Crucible Of Fire
1
Demanding Dragon
1
Dragonkin Berserker
1
Dragonmaster Outcast
1
Drakuseth, Maw Of Flames
1
Dream Pillager
1
Flameblast Dragon
1
Hoard Smelter Dragon
1
Magmaquake
1
Mordant Dragon
1
Runehorn Hellkite
1
Sarkhan, The Dragonspeaker
1
Scourge Of Valkas
1
Spit Flame
1
Sweltering Suns
1
Thunderbreak Regent
1
Thundermaw Hellkite
1
Tyrant'S Familiar
1
Verix Bladewing
1
Foe Razer Regent
1
Frontier Siege
1
Hunter'S Prowess
1
Primal Might
1
Shamanic Revelation
1
Clan Defiance
1
Harbinger Of The Hunt
1
Dragon'S Hoard
1
Steel Hellkite
1
Cinder Glade
1
Game Trail
1
Haven Of The Spirit Dragon
1
Temple Of Abandon
1
Dragon Mage
1
Dragon Tempest
1
Dragonlord'S Servant
1
Dragonspeaker Shaman
1
Furnace Whelp
1
Provoke The Trolls
1
Rapacious Dragon
1
Unleash Fury
1
Vandalblast
1
Beast Within
1
Blossoming Defense
1
Cultivate
1
Drumhunter
1
Elemental Bond
1
Garruk'S Uprising
1
Hunter'S Insight
1
Loaming Shaman
1
Return To Nature
1
Sakura Tribe Elder
1
Draconic Disciple
1
Fires Of Yavimaya
1
Savage Ventmaw
1
Atarka Monument
1
Swiftfoot Boots
1
Talisman Of Impulse
1
Kazandu Refuge
1
Path Of Ancestry
1
Shivan Oasis
1
Timber Gorge
1
Geralf'S Mindcrusher
1
Laboratory Drudge
1
Army Of The Damned
1
Cemetery Reaper
1
Champion Of The Perished
1
Crippling Fear
1
Gravespawn Sovereign
1
Josu Vess, Lich Knight
1
Liliana, Untouched By Death
1
Liliana'S Mastery
1
Liliana'S Standard Bearer
1
Midnight Reaper
1
Necromantic Selection
1
Necrotic Hex
1
Open The Graves
1
Overseer Of The Damned
1
Scourge Of Nel Toth
1
Unbreathing Horde
1
Zombie Apocalypse
1
Enter The God Eternals
1
Havengul Lich
1
Undermine
1
Vela The Night Clad
1
Grimoire Of The Dead
1
Choked Estuary
1
Sunken Hollow
1
Temple Of Deceit
1
Deep Analysis
1
Distant Melody
1
Eternal Skylord
1
Lazotep Plating
1
Sinister Sabotage
1
Cruel Revival
1
Curse Of Disturbance
1
Fleshbag Marauder
1
Gray Merchant Of Asphodel
1
Lazotep Reaver
1
Liliana'S Devotee
1
Lord Of The Accursed
1
Lotleth Giant
1
Loyal Subordinate
1
Mire Triton
1
Murder
1
Spark Reaper
1
Syphon Flesh
1
Undead Augur
1
Vampiric Rites
1
Vengeful Dead
1
Victimize
1
Vizier Of The Scorpion
1
Withered Wretch
1
Diregraf Captain
1
Gleaming Overseer
1
Pilfered Plans
1
Dimir Signet
1
Heraldic Banner
1
Talisman Of Dominance
1
Unstable Obelisk
1
Dismal Backwater
1
Jwar Isle Refuge
1
Salt Marsh
1
Submerged Boneyard
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
17%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Commons & Uncommons $68.03 59%
Rare / Mythic $47.76 41%
Lands $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | $122.19 | $115.00 | $149.87 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-22 | $122.19 | $115.00 | $149.80 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | $121.79 | $115.00 | $149.95 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-20 | $121.99 | $115.00 | $150.84 | $199.99 |
| 2026-09-19 | $121.61 | $115.00 | $152.79 | $199.99 |
| 2026-09-18 | $121.23 | $129.49 | $158.07 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | $121.03 | $125.00 | $156.06 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-16 | $121.03 | $120.00 | $151.30 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-10 | $119.83 | $119.99 | $149.95 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-07 | $120.02 | $119.99 | $148.72 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-06 | $120.02 | $119.99 | $148.72 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-05 | $120.01 | $119.99 | $145.00 | $199.99 |
| 2026-09-04 | $119.89 | $119.99 | $143.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-03 | $119.56 | $119.99 | $143.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-02 | $119.15 | $119.99 | $143.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-09-01 | $119.15 | $119.99 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-31 | $118.75 | $116.04 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-30 | $118.34 | $116.04 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-29 | $116.48 | $119.99 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | $115.67 | $119.95 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-27 | $115.67 | $119.95 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-26 | $114.86 | $119.95 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-25 | $114.46 | $119.95 | $142.74 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-24 | $113.45 | $119.95 | $145.00 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-23 | $113.04 | $119.95 | $145.00 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-22 | $112.23 | $119.95 | $145.00 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-21 | $111.43 | $119.95 | $144.36 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-20 | $109.42 | $114.95 | $143.71 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-19 | $108.98 | $110.00 | $139.83 | $299.99 |
| 2026-08-18 | $108.98 | $110.00 | $139.83 | $299.99 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-23 NEUTRAL
STARTER COMMANDER DECKS · COMMANDER DECK
94.8%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $115.79 · Box Price $122.19 7D -0.4%
30D +7.9%
90D +49.8%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-23 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5
Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5 currently sells for $122.19 at market, up 7.7% over 30 days and up 34.9% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $199.46 (2025-02-16); low: $85.20 (2026-05-24).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5 FAQ
Is Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5 worth opening?
Coin flip. Median crack value is $115.79 against a $122.19 box price (0.95× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-23.
What is the best card you can pull from Starter Commander Deck - Set of 5?
The top pull by value is Sol Ring (about $2.00), with roughly a 500.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
772 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-23.