SEALED · BOOSTER CASE
Is The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-23 · 780 DAYS TRACKED CRACK Open it.
BOX PRICE $293.97 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $361.96 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $294 / $129 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 192 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +1.2%
30D +8.3%
90D +10.9%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case box price and crack EV, last 780 days: box from $128.52 to $294.17, EV from $132.58 to $361.96.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 192 days.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
23
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Admiral Brass, Unsinkable
1
Don Andres, The Renegade
1
The Indomitable
1
Storm Fleet Negotiator
1
Francisco, Fowl Marauder
1
The Grim Captain'S Locker
1
Skeleton Crew
1
Broadside Bombardiers
1
Gemcutter Buccaneer
1
Arm Mounted Anchor
1
Amphin Mutineer
1
Bident Of Thassa
1
Corsair Captain
1
Evacuation
1
Timestream Navigator
1
Warkite Marauder
1
Black Market Connections
1
Blood Money
1
Dire Fleet Ravager
1
Fathom Fleet Captain
1
Lethal Scheme
1
Angrath'S Marauders
1
Blasphemous Act
1
Captain Lannery Storm
1
Captivating Crew
1
Chaos Warp
1
Coercive Recruiter
1
Dire Fleet Daredevil
1
Kari Zev, Skyship Raider
1
Port Razer
1
Shared Animosity
1
Admiral Beckett Brass
1
Hostage Taker
1
King Narfi'S Betrayal
1
Prismari Command
1
Zara, Renegade Recruiter
1
Icon Of Ancestry
1
Vanquisher'S Banner
1
Choked Estuary
1
Desolate Lighthouse
2
Exotic Orchard
1
Foreboding Ruins
1
Frostboil Snarl
1
Geier Reach Sanitarium
1
Nephalia Drownyard
1
Smoldering Marsh
1
Sulfur Falls
1
Sunken Hollow
1
Azure Fleet Admiral
1
Enterprising Scallywag
1
Daring Saboteur
1
Departed Deckhand
1
Distant Melody
1
Ghost Of Ramirez Depietro
1
Malcolm, Keen Eyed Navigator
1
Merchant Raiders
1
Siren Stormtamer
1
Spectral Sailor
1
Windfall
1
Feed The Swarm
1
Pitiless Plunderer
1
Breeches, Brazen Plunderer
1
Faithless Looting
1
Rakdos Charm
1
Ramirez Depietro, Pillager
4
Arcane Signet
3
Commander'S Sphere
1
Dimir Signet
1
Herald'S Horn
1
Izzet Signet
1
Rakdos Signet
4
Sol Ring
2
Wayfarer'S Bauble
4
Command Tower
1
Crumbling Necropolis
2
Evolving Wilds
4
Path Of Ancestry
1
Port Of Karfell
4
Rogue'S Passage
4
Secluded Courtyard
2
Terramorphic Expanse
2
Thriving Bluff
1
Thriving Isle
1
Thriving Moor
4
Unclaimed Territory
17
Swamp
9
Mountain
1
ClavileñO, First Of The Blessed
1
Carmen, Cruel Skymarcher
1
Charismatic Conqueror
1
Elenda'S Hierophant
1
March Of The Canonized
1
Redemption Choir
1
Dusk Legion Sergeant
1
Master Of Dark Rites
1
Promise Of Aclazotz // Foul Rebirth
1
Order Of Sacred Dusk
1
Austere Command
1
Kindred Boon
1
Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle
1
Radiant Destiny
1
Welcoming Vampire
1
Bloodghast
1
Bloodtracker
1
Butcher Of Malakir
1
Champion Of Dusk
1
Cordial Vampire
1
Crossway Troublemakers
1
Damn
1
Drana, Liberator Of Malakir
1
Exquisite Blood
1
Glass Cast Heart
1
New Blood
1
Nighthawk Scavenger
1
Olivia'S Wrath
1
Pact Of The Serpent
1
Patron Of The Vein
1
Sanctum Seeker
1
Timothar, Baron Of Bats
1
Twilight Prophet
1
Yahenni, Undying Partisan
1
Elenda, The Dusk Rose
1
Sorin, Lord Of Innistrad
1
Utter End
1
Vona, Butcher Of Magan
1
Blade Of The Bloodchief
1
Isolated Chapel
1
Shineshadow Snarl
1
Temple Of Silence
1
Vault Of The Archangel
1
Voldaren Estate
1
Windbrisk Heights
1
Martyr Of Dusk
1
Return To Dust
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Blood Artist
1
Bloodline Necromancer
1
Dusk Legion Zealot
1
Falkenrath Noble
1
Indulgent Aristocrat
1
Oathsworn Vampire
1
Village Rites
1
Viscera Seer
1
Bartolomé Del Presidio
1
Cruel Celebrant
1
Etchings Of The Chosen
1
Legion Lieutenant
1
Heirloom Blade
1
Mind Stone
1
Orzhov Signet
2
Swiftfoot Boots
1
Talisman Of Hierarchy
1
Bojuka Bog
1
Orzhov Basilica
1
Tainted Field
3
Temple Of The False God
12
Plains
1
Hakbal Of The Surging Soul
1
Xolatoyac, The Smiling Flood
1
Mist Dancer
1
Ripples Of Potential
1
Wave Goodbye
1
Bygone Marvels
1
Deeproot Historian
1
Topography Tracker
1
Tributary Instructor
1
Singer Of Swift Rivers
1
Benthic Biomancer
1
Commit // Memory
1
Coralhelm Commander
1
Curse Of The Swine
1
Emperor Mihail Ii
1
Herald Of Secret Streams
1
Kindred Discovery
1
Kopala, Warden Of Waves
1
Master Of The Pearl Trident
1
Merfolk Sovereign
1
Reflections Of Littjara
1
Seafloor Oracle
1
Surgespanner
1
Svyelun Of Sea And Sky
1
Thassa, God Of The Sea
1
Thieving Skydiver
1
Branching Evolution
1
Deeproot Elite
1
Hardened Scales
1
Realmwalker
1
Ruinous Intrusion
1
Cold Eyed Selkie
1
Kumena, Tyrant Of Orazca
1
Prime Speaker Zegana
1
Quandrix Command
1
Simic Ascendancy
1
Tishana, Voice Of Thunder
1
Vorel Of The Hull Clade
1
Zegana, Utopian Speaker
1
Metallic Mimic
1
Alchemist'S Refuge
1
Karn'S Bastion
2
Mosswort Bridge
1
Temple Of Mystery
1
Vineglimmer Snarl
1
Merfolk Cave Diver
1
Aetherize
1
Deeproot Waters
1
Merrow Reejerey
1
Rapid Hybridization
1
Ravenform
1
Sage Of Fables
1
Stonybrook Banneret
1
Beast Within
1
Nicanzil, Current Conductor
1
Evolution Sage
1
Explore
1
Inspiring Call
1
Kodama'S Reach
1
Growth Spiral
1
Kiora'S Follower
1
Merfolk Mistbinder
1
Merfolk Skydiver
1
Tatyova, Benthic Druid
1
Simic Signet
1
Llanowar Reborn
1
Reliquary Tower
1
Simic Growth Chamber
15
Forest
1
Pantlaza, Sun Favored
1
Wayta, Trainer Prodigy
1
Bronzebeak Foragers
1
From The Rubble
1
Wrathful Raptors
1
Curious Altisaur
1
Dinosaur Egg
1
Scion Of Calamity
1
Sunfrill Imitator
1
Progenitor'S Icon
1
Akroma'S Will
1
Kinjalli'S Sunwing
1
Temple Altisaur
1
Wakening Sun'S Avatar
1
Zetalpa, Primal Dawn
1
Chandra'S Ignition
1
Etali, Primal Storm
1
Fiery Confluence
1
Marauding Raptor
1
Apex Altisaur
1
Deathgorge Scavenger
1
Descendants' Path
1
Rampaging Brontodon
1
Regal Behemoth
1
Return Of The Wildspeaker
1
Ripjaw Raptor
1
Rishkar'S Expertise
1
Runic Armasaur
1
Shifting Ceratops
1
Topiary Stomper
1
Verdant Sun'S Avatar
1
Wayward Swordtooth
1
Quartzwood Crasher
1
Regisaur Alpha
1
Xenagos, God Of Revels
1
Zacama, Primal Calamity
1
Lifecrafter'S Bestiary
1
Arch Of Orazca
1
Canopy Vista
1
Cinder Glade
1
Clifftop Retreat
1
Fortified Village
1
Furycalm Snarl
1
Game Trail
1
Kessig Wolf Run
1
Bellowing Aegisaur
1
Generous Gift
1
Majestic Heliopterus
1
Path To Exile
1
Earthshaker Dreadmaw
1
Ixalli'S Lorekeeper
1
Thrashing Brontodon
1
Otepec Huntmaster
1
Itzquinth, Firstborn Of Gishath
1
Cultivate
1
Drover Of The Mighty
1
Farseek
1
Migration Path
1
Rampant Growth
1
Ranging Raptors
1
Savage Stomp
1
Thunderherd Migration
1
Thundering Spineback
1
Atzocan Seer
1
Raging Regisaur
1
Raging Swordtooth
1
Rhythm Of The Wild
1
Jungle Shrine
1
Thriving Grove
1
Thriving Heath
CONCENTRATION · JACKPOT RISK top 3 cards
21%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $287.97 80%
Commons & Uncommons $68.45 19%
Lands $5.54 2%
Bonus Sheet $0.00 0%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | $293.97 | $278.00 | $349.99 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-22 | $294.17 | $331.95 | $350.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | $292.77 | $319.90 | $349.99 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | $292.77 | $319.90 | $349.99 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | $290.05 | $298.00 | $349.24 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | $287.25 | $298.00 | $348.48 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | $287.25 | $298.00 | $349.24 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | $287.25 | $298.00 | $349.24 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | $283.38 | $278.06 | $298.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | $283.50 | $278.06 | $299.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | $284.04 | $278.00 | $298.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | $285.32 | $267.96 | $297.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | $285.78 | $267.96 | $297.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | $286.01 | $267.96 | $298.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | $286.01 | $278.00 | $298.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | $286.59 | $278.00 | $298.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | $287.47 | $267.95 | $297.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | $287.63 | $267.95 | $297.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | $287.63 | $267.95 | $297.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | $287.63 | $267.95 | $297.50 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | $287.07 | $267.95 | $297.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | $286.18 | $267.95 | $298.50 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | $284.33 | $267.95 | $298.50 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | $283.85 | $267.95 | $298.50 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | $283.85 | $267.95 | $298.50 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | $283.85 | $267.95 | $298.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | $282.33 | $267.95 | $297.50 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | $282.33 | $267.95 | $298.48 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | $282.33 | $279.08 | $299.00 | $500.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | $282.13 | $279.08 | $299.48 | $500.00 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-23 CRACK
THE LOST CAVERNS OF IXALAN COMMANDER · BOOSTER CASE
126.0%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $361.96 · Box Price $293.97 7D +1.2%
30D +8.3%
90D +10.9%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-23 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case currently sells for $293.97 at market, up 4.1% over 30 days and up 28.4% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $294.17 (2026-09-22); low: $128.52 (2025-12-11).
COMMON QUESTIONS
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case FAQ
Is The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case worth opening?
Open it. Median crack value is $361.96 against a $293.97 box price (1.26× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-23.
What is the best card you can pull from The Lost Caverns of Ixalan Commander Deck Case?
The top pull by value is Exquisite Blood (about $37.29), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
780 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-23.