SEALED · BOOSTER CASE
Is Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition) Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-24 · 778 DAYS TRACKED CRACK Open it.
BOX PRICE $1,829.91 TCGplayer market
MEDIAN EV $2,382.87 Monte-Carlo median
ALL-TIME RANGE $1,830 / $546 box-price high / low
DAYS EV > BOX 197 current streak
EV TREND · % CHANGE
7D +0.2%
30D +3.3%
90D +8.6%
As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
CRACK-OR-HOLD
Crack EV Box price
Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition) box price and crack EV, last 778 days: box from $545.78 to $1,829.91, EV from $1,662.09 to $2,384.70.
▲
Crack EV has held above box price for the last 197 days.
ANATOMY What's in the box
1 PACK · SLOT COMPOSITION
22
Land Basic or showcase land
1
Bonus Sheet Reprint from outside the set
1
Inquisitor Greyfax
1
Bastion Protector
1
Collective Effort
1
Deploy To The Front
1
Fell The Mighty
1
Hour Of Reckoning
1
Launch The Fleet
1
Martial Coup
1
Entrapment Maneuver
1
Utter End
1
Swords To Plowshares
1
Mortify
1
Everflowing Chalice
2
Mind Stone
1
Skullclamp
4
Sol Ring
2
Talisman Of Dominance
1
Talisman Of Hierarchy
1
Talisman Of Progress
3
Arcane Signet
3
Commander'S Sphere
1
Reconnaissance Mission
1
Choked Estuary
1
Darkwater Catacombs
3
Exotic Orchard
1
Port Town
1
Prairie Stream
1
Skycloud Expanse
2
Sunken Hollow
1
Arcane Sanctum
2
Ash Barrens
1
Memorial To Glory
3
Command Tower
2
Dismal Backwater
3
Path Of Ancestry
1
Scoured Barrens
3
Terramorphic Expanse
1
Tranquil Cove
45
Swamp
8
Plains
1
Marneus Calgar
1
Celestine, The Living Saint
1
Defenders Of Humanity
1
For The Emperor!
1
Space Marine Devastator
1
Triumph Of Saint Katherine
1
Ultramarines Honour Guard
1
Vexilus Praetor
1
Zephyrim
1
Sister Of Silence
1
Vanguard Suppressor
1
Arco Flagellant
1
Primaris Eliminator
1
Assault Intercessor
1
Belisarius Cawl
1
Birth Of The Imperium
1
Callidus Assassin
1
Commissar Severina Raine
1
Company Commander
1
Cybernetica Datasmith
1
Epistolary Librarian
1
Exterminatus
1
The Flesh Is Weak
1
Inquisitor Eisenhorn
1
Neyam Shai Murad
1
Sister Hospitaller
1
Sister Repentia
1
The Golden Throne
1
Inquisitorial Rosette
1
Knight Paladin
1
Reaver Titan
1
Redemptor Dreadnought
1
Thunderhawk Gunship
1
And They Shall Know No Fear
1
Grey Knight Paragon
1
Space Marine Scout
1
Thunderwolf Cavalry
1
Sicarian Infiltrator
1
Sanguinary Priest
1
Deny The Witch
1
Primaris Chaplain
1
Szarekh, The Silent King
1
Beacon Of Unrest
1
Living Death
1
Mutilate
1
Dread Return
1
Defile
1
Darkness
1
Go For The Throat
1
Caged Sun
1
Endless Atlas
1
Gilded Lotus
1
Mystic Forge
1
Sculpting Steel
1
Cranial Plating
1
Mask Of Memory
1
Thought Vessel
1
Unstable Obelisk
2
Wayfarer'S Bauble
2
Barren Moor
1
Reliquary Tower
1
Desert Of The Glorified
1
Polluted Mire
1
Vault Of Whispers
1
Imotekh The Stormlord
1
Anrakyr The Traveller
1
Biotransference
1
Chronomancer
1
Cryptek
1
Illuminor Szeras
1
Lokhust Heavy Destroyer
1
Lychguard
1
Necron Deathmark
1
Necron Overlord
1
Out Of The Tombs
1
Royal Warden
1
Shard Of The Nightbringer
1
Shard Of The Void Dragon
1
Skorpekh Lord
1
Technomancer
1
Their Name Is Death
1
Their Number Is Legion
1
Tomb Blade
1
Trazyn The Infinite
1
Triarch Stalker
1
The War In Heaven
1
Canoptek Scarab Swarm
1
Canoptek Spyder
1
Canoptek Tomb Sentinel
1
Canoptek Wraith
1
Convergence Of Dominion
1
Cryptothrall
1
Ghost Ark
1
Necron Monolith
1
Resurrection Orb
1
Sceptre Of Eternal Glory
1
Tomb Fortress
1
Flayed One
1
Hexmark Destroyer
1
Plasmancer
1
Psychomancer
1
Sautekh Immortal
1
Skorpekh Destroyer
1
Triarch Praetorian
1
Night Scythe
1
Abaddon The Despoiler
1
Past In Flames
1
Decree Of Pain
1
Blasphemous Act
1
Deny Reality
1
Chaos Warp
1
Reverberate
1
Bile Blight
1
Bituminous Blast
1
Brainstorm
1
Dark Ritual
1
Chromatic Lantern
1
Assault Suit
1
Talisman Of Creativity
1
Talisman Of Indulgence
1
Worn Powerstone
1
Warstorm Surge
1
Foreboding Ruins
1
Crumbling Necropolis
1
Molten Slagheap
1
Temple Of The False God
1
Forgotten Cave
1
Swiftwater Cliffs
15
Mountain
1
Be'Lakor, The Dark Master
1
Lord Of Change
1
Blight Grenade
1
Great Unclean One
1
Mandate Of Abaddon
1
Mortarion, Daemon Primarch
1
Nurgle'S Conscription
1
Plague Drone
1
Poxwalkers
1
Sloppity Bilepiper
1
Tallyman Of Nurgle
1
Venomcrawler
1
Aspiring Champion
1
Bloodthirster
1
Dark Apostle
1
Keeper Of Secrets
1
KhâRn The Betrayer
1
Knight Rampager
1
Let The Galaxy Burn
1
Blood For The Blood God!
1
Chaos Defiler
1
Chaos Mutation
1
Drach'Nyen
1
Exalted Flamer Of Tzeentch
1
Helbrute
1
The Horus Heresy
1
Kill! Maim! Burn!
1
Lucius The Eternal
1
Magnus The Red
1
Mutalith Vortex Beast
1
Pink Horror
1
The Ruinous Powers
1
Tzaangor Shaman
1
Heralds Of Tzeentch
1
Nurgle'S Rot
1
Bloodcrusher Of Khorne
1
Chaos Terminator Lord
1
Herald Of Slaanesh
1
Noise Marine
1
Seeker Of Slaanesh
1
The Lost And The Damned
1
The Swarmlord
1
Hull Breach
1
Cultivate
1
Explore
1
Farseek
1
Rampant Growth
1
Starstorm
1
Aetherize
1
Inspiring Call
1
Harrow
1
Icon Of Ancestry
1
Herald'S Horn
1
Abundance
1
Death'S Presence
1
Hardened Scales
1
Bred For The Hunt
1
New Horizons
1
Overgrowth
1
Cinder Glade
1
Game Trail
1
Temple Of Abandon
1
Temple Of Epiphany
1
Temple Of Mystery
1
Frontier Bivouac
1
Unclaimed Territory
1
Cave Of Temptation
1
Opal Palace
1
Thornwood Falls
8
Forest
1
Magus Lucea Kane
1
Genestealer Patriarch
1
Exocrine
1
The Red Terror
1
Screamer Killer
1
Biophagus
1
Bone Sabres
1
Broodlord
1
Clamavus
1
Haruspex
1
Hierophant Bio Titan
1
Hormagaunt Horde
1
Lictor
1
Nexos
1
Old One Eye
1
Sporocyst
1
Termagant Swarm
1
Tervigon
1
Toxicrene
1
Tyrant Guard
1
Atalan Jackal
1
Deathleaper, Terror Weapon
1
The First Tyrannic War
1
Gargoyle Flock
1
Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph
1
Malanthrope
1
Mawloc
1
Ravener
1
Shadow In The Warp
1
Tyranid Harridan
1
Tyranid Prime
1
Winged Hive Tyrant
1
Zoanthrope
1
Genestealer Locus
1
Acolyte Hybrid
1
Aberrant
1
Purestrain Genestealer
1
Tyranid Invasion
1
Trygon Prime
1
Venomthrope
1
Goliath Truck
CONCENTRATION · BALANCED top 3 cards
10%of total EV
FLOOR <8%
BALANCED 8–20%
JACKPOT >20%
SLOT-LEVEL EV Where your value comes from
Rare / Mythic $1,756.24 74%
Commons & Uncommons $468.60 20%
Lands $158.03 7%
CARD-LEVEL EV · GROUPED BY SLOT Top contributors per box
SHOW CARDS AT OR ABOVE
DAILY SNAPSHOT Recent prices · last 30 days
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | $1,829.91 | $2,129.00 | $2,620.83 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1,829.91 | $2,137.00 | $2,616.77 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1,829.91 | $2,137.00 | $2,616.87 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1,829.91 | $2,137.00 | $2,616.97 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1,829.91 | $2,137.00 | $2,617.07 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1,829.91 | $2,137.00 | $2,617.17 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1,829.91 | $2,137.00 | $2,617.17 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1,829.91 | $2,140.00 | $2,617.27 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1,829.91 | $2,140.00 | $2,617.37 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1,814.91 | $2,160.00 | $2,608.98 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1,814.91 | $2,160.00 | $2,609.13 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1,814.91 | $2,160.00 | $2,609.18 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1,788.18 | $2,160.00 | $2,609.23 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1,788.18 | $2,170.00 | $2,609.28 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1,788.18 | $2,170.00 | $2,609.33 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1,788.18 | $2,193.03 | $2,609.38 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1,788.18 | $2,000.00 | $2,599.99 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1,788.18 | $2,000.00 | $2,599.99 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1,788.18 | $2,000.00 | $2,599.99 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1,788.18 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1,788.18 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1,788.18 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,549.84 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1,760.37 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.69 | $40,420.69 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1,748.83 | $2,000.00 | $2,499.98 | $40,420.69 |
TCGSTRAT · THE INDEX AS OF 2026-09-24 CRACK
WARHAMMER 40,000 COMMANDER · BOOSTER CASE
130.2%
OF BOX PRICE BACK IF YOU CRACK IT Expected Value $2,382.87 · Box Price $1,829.91 7D +0.2%
30D +3.3%
90D +8.6%
SNAPSHOT · LOCK THIS ANALYSIS
Share the 2026-09-24 read, not whatever the page says next week.
A snapshot link freezes this date's verdict, EV, and chart — useful for "here's why I bought it" debates or checking later whether your read held up.
PRODUCT DETAILS
About Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition)
Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition) currently sells for $1,829.91 at market, up 4.0% over 30 days and up 16.2% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $1,829.91 (2026-09-16); low: $545.78 (2024-07-16).
COMMON QUESTIONS
Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition) FAQ
Is Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition) worth opening?
Open it. Median crack value is $2,382.87 against a $1,829.91 box price (1.30× EV ratio), as of 2026-09-24.
What is the best card you can pull from Universes Beyond: Warhammer 40,000 - Commander Deck Case (Collector's Edition)?
The top pull by value is Ghyrson Starn, Kelermorph (about $107.60), with roughly a 100.0% chance per box.
HOW WE GOT THESE NUMBERS Methodology & data sources
Pull rates
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
Price data
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Median EV
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
Outcome range
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Serialized inserts
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
Tracked since
778 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-24.