Shown with one Booster Pack $5.99 per pack at the box price

Fate Reforged Sealed · Booster display

Is Fate Reforged - Booster Box Worth Opening?

36 packsFate ReforgedFRF

TCGplayer market · Nov 9, 2026 $215.60

1-year range $168.26$215.88 0.1% below the 1-year high

Value gaugeCard value per dollar of box price SKIP

0.28×

EV $59.68, $155.92 less card value than the box costs.

TCGplayer, $215.60 (opens in a new tab) Mana Pool, $203.98, lowest price (opens in a new tab) Amazon, Check price (opens in a new tab) eBay, Check price (opens in a new tab)

Affiliate links. TCG Strat may earn a commission from TCGplayer, Mana Pool and eBay. As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. Mana Pool observed Nov 9, 2026, before shipping.

Fate Reforged - Booster Box Expected Value by Slot

Expected card value of one box at today’s market prices, built up slot by slot: $59.68, or 0.28× the $215.60 the box costs, drawn as the dashed line.

EV per pack $1.66 vs $5.99 paid per pack

Wildcard and foil, per pack $0.16 of the $1.66 in each pack

Break-even sell-through 361.3% of market value covers the box

Card value below price −$155.92 before fees and shipping

$0$50$100$150$200$250

$5.93 9.9%

$20.90 35.0%

$7.18 12.0%

$25.66 43.0%

$59.68 100%

−$155.92 card value below the box price

Box price$215.60

Wildcard / Treatment36 slots per box

Rare / Mythic36 slots per box

Commons & Uncommons432 slots per box

Lands36 slots per box

Box EVSum of every slot

Box price $215.60

Wildcard / Treatment$5.93 · 9.9%

Rare / Mythic$20.90 · 35.0%

Commons & Uncommons$7.18 · 12.0%

Lands$25.66 · 43.0%

Box EV$59.68

$155.92 under price

About Fate Reforged - Booster Box

Fate Reforged - Booster Box contains 36 packs. At $215.60 it trades near the top of its one-year range of $168.26 to $215.88.

What’s in the box

15 slots per pack that carry card value, averaged across pack configurations

Common 9 per pack

324 per box

Uncommon 3 per pack

108 per box

Rare or Mythic 1 per pack

36 per box

Wildcard 0.8 per pack

27.9 per box

Traditional Foil 0.2 per pack

8.1 per box

Land 1 per pack

36 per box

Common9 per pack

324per box

Uncommon3 per pack

108per box

Rare or Mythic1 per pack

36per box

Wildcard0.8 per pack

27.9per box

Traditional Foil0.2 per pack

8.1per box

Land1 per pack

36per box

Valued slots15 per pack · 540 per box

15 slots per pack carry card value. Counts are averaged across pack configurations, so some products show fractions.

Where your value comes from

The 540 cards that carry value, priced at market. The commons and uncommons in each pack are worth about $0.02 apiece.

Slot	Cards	EV per box	Per card	Share of box EV
Wildcard / TreatmentWildcard and traditional foil slots	36	$5.93	$0.16	9.9%
Rare / MythicOne per pack	36	$20.90	$0.58	35.0%
Commons & UncommonsTwelve per pack	432	$7.18	$0.02	12.0%
LandsBasic or showcase land	36	$25.66	$0.71	43.0%
Bonus sheetNo bonus sheet value in this product	0	$0.00	n/a	0.0%
Box total, 540 cards	540	$59.68	$0.11	100%

Wildcard / Treatment$5.93
9.9%
36 cards per box · $0.16 per card · Wildcard and traditional foil slots
Rare / Mythic$20.90
35.0%
36 cards per box · $0.58 per card · One per pack
Commons & Uncommons$7.18
12.0%
432 cards per box · $0.02 per card · Twelve per pack
Lands$25.66
43.0%
36 cards per box · $0.71 per card · Basic or showcase land
Bonus sheet$0.00
0.0%
0 cards per box · n/a per card · No bonus sheet value in this product
Box total, 540 cards$59.68

Outcome rangeOne box

Likely range for one box

The middle half of modeled outcomes for a single box at today’s market prices. EV is the average; this is the spread around it.

Mean$59.68Equals the box EV

Middle half spans$33.77High end minus low end

Modeled from pull rates and market prices. Selling fees and shipping are not included.

The bounds are estimated P25 and P75 values, normal-approximation estimates rather than percentiles measured from opened boxes.

How we price a box

Middle half of modeled outcomes

$42.79 to $76.56

Middle half, estimated 25th to 75th percentile
Mean
Box price

Best Pulls in Fate Reforged - Booster Box

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is the best pull at $17.41. Pulls are expected copies per box; EV is pulls times market price.

All Fate Reforged prices

#	Card	Rarity	Market	Pulls	Odds	EV	Share of EV
1	Ugin, the Spirit DragonMain set · Nonfoil · FRF #1	Mythic	$17.41	0.45	1 in 2 boxes	$7.83	13.1%
2	Polluted DeltaMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #239	Rare	$21.04	0.30	1 in 3 boxes	$6.31	10.6%
3	Bloodstained MireMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #230	Rare	$18.98	0.30	1 in 3 boxes	$5.69	9.5%
4	Wooded FoothillsMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #249	Rare	$17.91	0.30	1 in 3 boxes	$5.37	9.0%
5	Flooded StrandMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #233	Rare	$15.89	0.30	1 in 3 boxes	$4.77	8.0%
6	Dark DealMain set · Nonfoil · FRF #66	Uncommon	$2.57	1.80		$4.63	7.8%
7	Windswept HeathMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #248	Rare	$11.72	0.30	1 in 3 boxes	$3.52	5.9%
8	Temur SabertoothMain set · Nonfoil · FRF #141	Uncommon	$1.42	1.80		$2.56	4.3%
These eight together		$40.68, 68.2% of box EV. The other $19.00 comes from the rest of the set.

Bloodstained Mire — The three rares, $21.04, $18.98 and $17.91. Each turns up about once in three boxes.

Polluted Delta — The three rares, $21.04, $18.98 and $17.91. Each turns up about once in three boxes.

#1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

FRF #1

Nonfoil

$17.41

EV $7.83 · 1 in 2 boxes

#2 Polluted Delta

KTK #239

Nonfoil

$21.04

EV $6.31 · 1 in 3 boxes

#3 Bloodstained Mire

KTK #230

Nonfoil

$18.98

EV $5.69 · 1 in 3 boxes

#4 Wooded Foothills

KTK #249

Nonfoil

$17.91

EV $5.37 · 1 in 3 boxes

#5 Flooded Strand

KTK #233

Nonfoil

$15.89

EV $4.77 · 1 in 3 boxes

#6 Dark Deal

FRF #66

Nonfoil

$2.57

EV $4.63 · 1.80 per box

#7 Windswept Heath

KTK #248

Nonfoil

$11.72

EV $3.52 · 1 in 3 boxes

#8 Temur Sabertooth

FRF #141

Nonfoil

$1.42

EV $2.56 · 1.80 per box

1
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
FRF #1Nonfoil
$17.41 market · 0.45 per box · 1 in 2 boxes
$7.8313.1% of EV
2
Polluted Delta
KTK #239Nonfoil
$21.04 market · 0.30 per box · 1 in 3 boxes
$6.3110.6% of EV
3
Bloodstained Mire
KTK #230Nonfoil
$18.98 market · 0.30 per box · 1 in 3 boxes
$5.699.5% of EV
4
Wooded Foothills
KTK #249Nonfoil
$17.91 market · 0.30 per box · 1 in 3 boxes
$5.379.0% of EV
5
Flooded Strand
KTK #233Nonfoil
$15.89 market · 0.30 per box · 1 in 3 boxes
$4.778.0% of EV
6
Dark Deal
FRF #66Nonfoil
$2.57 market · 1.80 per box
$4.637.8% of EV
7
Windswept Heath
KTK #248Nonfoil
$11.72 market · 0.30 per box · 1 in 3 boxes
$3.525.9% of EV
8
Temur Sabertooth
FRF #141Nonfoil
$1.42 market · 1.80 per box
$2.564.3% of EV

These eight together$40.68, 68.2% of box EV

All Fate Reforged prices

Fate Reforged - Booster Box Price History

TCGplayer market price for the sealed box, past 12 months, against its crack EV.

$-0$100$200$300Nov 2025Feb 2026MayAugNovBox price$215.60Crack EV$59.68Mana Pool$203.981Y low $168.26

Mana Pool lowest listing · USD, before shipping · last observed Nov 9, 2026

Crack EV has held below box price for 237 days.

Now: $215.60; TCGplayer market
1-year high: $215.88; 0.1% above today
1-year low: $168.26; Today is 28.1% higher

The Fate Reforged lineup

Every Fate Reforged product we track, ranked by card value per dollar of sealed price.

Sealed screener

Crack or keep sealed

EV Notes

Verdict: Skip 0.28×

The Fate Reforged - Booster Box sells for $215.60 and carries $59.68 in expected card value at market, a 0.28× ratio and $155.92 less than the box costs.

Five-tier verdictEV ratio

Crack 1.10× and up Open it.

Favored 1.00× to 1.10× Slight crack.

Neutral 0.90× to 1.00× Coin flip.

Hold 0.75× to 0.90× Keep it sealed.

Skip under 0.75× This box, 0.28×

Fate Reforged - Booster Box FAQ