Fate Reforged Sealed · Booster pack

Is Fate Reforged - Booster Pack Worth Opening?

Fate ReforgedFRF

TCGplayer market · Nov 9, 2026 $7.64

1-year range $6.61$7.64 At the 1-year high

Value gaugeCard value per dollar of pack price SKIP

0.22×

EV $1.66, $5.98 less card value than the pack costs.

TCGplayer, $7.64, lowest price (opens in a new tab) Mana Pool, $8.03 (opens in a new tab) Amazon, Check price (opens in a new tab) eBay, Check price (opens in a new tab)

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Fate Reforged - Booster Pack Expected Value by Slot

Expected card value of one pack at today’s market prices, built up slot by slot: $1.66, or 0.22× the $7.64 the pack costs, drawn as the dashed line.

EV per pack $1.66 vs $7.64 paid per pack

Wildcard and foil, per pack $0.16 of the $1.66 in each pack

Break-even sell-through 460.9% of market value covers the pack

Card value below price −$5.98 before fees and shipping

$0$2$4$6$8

$0.16 9.9%

$0.58 35.0%

$0.20 12.0%

$0.71 43.0%

$1.66 100%

−$5.98 card value below the pack price

Pack price$7.64

Wildcard / Treatment1 slots per pack

Rare / Mythic1 slots per pack

Commons & Uncommons12 slots per pack

Lands1 slots per pack

Pack EVSum of every slot

Pack price $7.64

Wildcard / Treatment$0.16 · 9.9%

Rare / Mythic$0.58 · 35.0%

Commons & Uncommons$0.20 · 12.0%

Lands$0.71 · 43.0%

Pack EV$1.66

$5.98 under price

About Fate Reforged - Booster Pack

At $7.64 it trades near the top of its one-year range of $6.61 to $7.64.

What’s in the pack

15 slots per pack that carry card value, averaged across pack configurations

Common 9 per pack

Uncommon 3 per pack

Rare or Mythic 1 per pack

Wildcard 0.8 per pack

Traditional Foil 0.2 per pack

Land 1 per pack

Common9 per pack

Uncommon3 per pack

Rare or Mythic1 per pack

Wildcard0.8 per pack

Traditional Foil0.2 per pack

Land1 per pack

15 slots per pack carry card value. Counts are averaged across pack configurations, so some products show fractions.

Where your value comes from

The 15 cards that carry value, priced at market. The commons and uncommons in each pack are worth about $0.02 apiece.

Slot	Cards	EV per pack	Per card	Share of pack EV
Wildcard / TreatmentWildcard and traditional foil slots	1	$0.16	$0.16	9.9%
Rare / MythicOne per pack	1	$0.58	$0.58	35.0%
Commons & UncommonsTwelve per pack	12	$0.20	$0.02	12.0%
LandsBasic or showcase land	1	$0.71	$0.71	43.0%
Bonus sheetNo bonus sheet value in this product	0	$0.00	n/a	0.0%
Pack total, 15 cards	15	$1.66	$0.11	100%

Wildcard / Treatment$0.16
9.9%
1 card per pack · $0.16 per card · Wildcard and traditional foil slots
Rare / Mythic$0.58
35.0%
1 card per pack · $0.58 per card · One per pack
Commons & Uncommons$0.20
12.0%
12 cards per pack · $0.02 per card · Twelve per pack
Lands$0.71
43.0%
1 card per pack · $0.71 per card · Basic or showcase land
Bonus sheet$0.00
0.0%
0 cards per pack · n/a per card · No bonus sheet value in this product
Pack total, 15 cards$1.66

Outcome rangeOne pack

Likely range for one pack

The middle half of modeled outcomes for a single pack at today’s market prices. EV is the average; this is the spread around it.

Mean$1.66Equals the pack EV

Middle half spans$4.47High end minus low end

Modeled from pull rates and market prices. Selling fees and shipping are not included.

The bounds are estimated P25 and P75 values, normal-approximation estimates rather than percentiles measured from opened packs.

How we price a pack

Middle half of modeled outcomes

$0.00 to $4.47

Middle half, estimated 25th to 75th percentile
Mean
Pack price

Best Pulls in Fate Reforged - Booster Pack

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon is the best pull at $17.41. Pulls are expected copies per pack; EV is pulls times market price.

All Fate Reforged prices

#	Card	Rarity	Market	Pulls	Odds	EV	Share of EV
1	Ugin, the Spirit DragonMain set · Nonfoil · FRF #1	Mythic	$17.41	0.01	1 in 80 packs	$0.22	13.3%
2	Polluted DeltaMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #239	Rare	$21.04	0.01	1 in 120 packs	$0.18	10.8%
3	Bloodstained MireMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #230	Rare	$18.98	0.01	1 in 120 packs	$0.16	9.6%
4	Wooded FoothillsMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #249	Rare	$17.91	0.01	1 in 120 packs	$0.15	9.0%
5	Flooded StrandMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #233	Rare	$15.89	0.01	1 in 120 packs	$0.13	7.8%
6	Dark DealMain set · Nonfoil · FRF #66	Uncommon	$2.57	0.05	1 in 20 packs	$0.13	7.8%
7	Windswept HeathMain set · Nonfoil · KTK #248	Rare	$11.72	0.01	1 in 120 packs	$0.10	6.0%
8	Temur SabertoothMain set · Nonfoil · FRF #141	Uncommon	$1.42	0.05	1 in 20 packs	$0.07	4.2%
These eight together		$1.14, 68.7% of pack EV. The other $0.52 comes from the rest of the set.

Bloodstained Mire — The three rares, $21.04, $18.98 and $17.91. Each turns up about once in 120 packs.

Polluted Delta — The three rares, $21.04, $18.98 and $17.91. Each turns up about once in 120 packs.

#1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

FRF #1

Nonfoil

$17.41

EV $0.22 · 1 in 80 packs

#2 Polluted Delta

KTK #239

Nonfoil

$21.04

EV $0.18 · 1 in 120 packs

#3 Bloodstained Mire

KTK #230

Nonfoil

$18.98

EV $0.16 · 1 in 120 packs

#4 Wooded Foothills

KTK #249

Nonfoil

$17.91

EV $0.15 · 1 in 120 packs

#5 Flooded Strand

KTK #233

Nonfoil

$15.89

EV $0.13 · 1 in 120 packs

#6 Dark Deal

FRF #66

Nonfoil

$2.57

EV $0.13 · 1 in 20 packs

#7 Windswept Heath

KTK #248

Nonfoil

$11.72

EV $0.10 · 1 in 120 packs

#8 Temur Sabertooth

FRF #141

Nonfoil

$1.42

EV $0.07 · 1 in 20 packs

1
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
FRF #1Nonfoil
$17.41 market · 0.01 per pack · 1 in 80 packs
$0.2213.3% of EV
2
Polluted Delta
KTK #239Nonfoil
$21.04 market · 0.01 per pack · 1 in 120 packs
$0.1810.8% of EV
3
Bloodstained Mire
KTK #230Nonfoil
$18.98 market · 0.01 per pack · 1 in 120 packs
$0.169.6% of EV
4
Wooded Foothills
KTK #249Nonfoil
$17.91 market · 0.01 per pack · 1 in 120 packs
$0.159.0% of EV
5
Flooded Strand
KTK #233Nonfoil
$15.89 market · 0.01 per pack · 1 in 120 packs
$0.137.8% of EV
6
Dark Deal
FRF #66Nonfoil
$2.57 market · 0.05 per pack · 1 in 20 packs
$0.137.8% of EV
7
Windswept Heath
KTK #248Nonfoil
$11.72 market · 0.01 per pack · 1 in 120 packs
$0.106.0% of EV
8
Temur Sabertooth
FRF #141Nonfoil
$1.42 market · 0.05 per pack · 1 in 20 packs
$0.074.2% of EV

These eight together$1.14, 68.7% of pack EV

All Fate Reforged prices

Fate Reforged - Booster Pack Price History

TCGplayer market price for the sealed pack, past 12 months, against its crack EV.

$-0$5$10Nov 2025Feb 2026MayAugNovPack price$7.64Crack EV$1.66Mana Pool$8.031Y low $6.61

Mana Pool lowest listing · USD, before shipping · last observed Nov 9, 2026

Crack EV has held below pack price for 238 days.

Now: $7.64; TCGplayer market
1-year high: $7.64; At the 1-year high
1-year low: $6.61; Today is 15.6% higher

The Fate Reforged lineup

Every Fate Reforged product we track, ranked by card value per dollar of sealed price.

Sealed screener

Crack or keep sealed

EV Notes

Verdict: Skip 0.22×

The Fate Reforged - Booster Pack sells for $7.64 and carries $1.66 in expected card value at market, a 0.22× ratio and $5.98 less than the pack costs.

Five-tier verdictEV ratio

Crack 1.10× and up Open it.

Favored 1.00× to 1.10× Slight crack.

Neutral 0.90× to 1.00× Coin flip.

Hold 0.75× to 0.90× Keep it sealed.

Skip under 0.75× This pack, 0.22×

Fate Reforged - Booster Pack FAQ