Magic 2011 Sealed · Bundle

Is Magic 2011 (M11) - Fat Pack Worth Opening?

Magic 2011M11

TCGplayer market · Nov 8, 2026 $125.00

1-year range $99.99$125.00 At the 1-year high

Value gaugeCard value per dollar of bundle price SKIP

0.35×

EV $43.61, $81.39 less card value than the bundle costs.

TCGplayer, $125.00 (opens in a new tab) Mana Pool, $112.18, lowest price (opens in a new tab) Amazon, Check price (opens in a new tab) eBay, Check price (opens in a new tab)

Affiliate links. TCG Strat may earn a commission from TCGplayer, Mana Pool and eBay. As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. Mana Pool observed Nov 8, 2026, before shipping.

The slot-by-slot breakdown is not available for this bundle yet. Its EV and verdict are unaffected.

About Magic 2011 (M11) - Fat Pack

At $125.00 it trades near the top of its one-year range of $99.99 to $125.00.

Outcome rangeOne bundle

Likely range for one bundle

The middle half of modeled outcomes for a single bundle at today’s market prices. EV is the average; this is the spread around it.

Mean$43.61Equals the bundle EV

Middle half spans$25.25High end minus low end

Modeled from pull rates and market prices. Selling fees and shipping are not included.

The bounds are estimated P25 and P75 values, normal-approximation estimates rather than percentiles measured from opened bundles.

How we price a bundle

Middle half of modeled outcomes

$30.99 to $56.24

Middle half, estimated 25th to 75th percentile
Mean
Bundle price

Best Pulls in Magic 2011 (M11) - Fat Pack

Pyretic Ritual is the best pull at $6.52. Pulls are expected copies per bundle; EV is pulls times market price.

All Magic 2011 prices

#	Card	Rarity	Market	Pulls	Odds	EV	Share of EV
1	Pyretic RitualMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #153	Common	$6.52	0.77		$5.05	11.6%
2	Serra AscendantMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #28	Rare	$30.17	0.13	1 in 8 bundles	$3.99	9.1%
3	Liliana's CaressMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #103	Uncommon	$7.55	0.40	1 in 3 bundles	$3.02	6.9%
4	Relentless RatsMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #113	Uncommon	$4.22	0.40	1 in 3 bundles	$1.69	3.9%
5	Birds of ParadiseMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #165	Rare	$12.37	0.13	1 in 8 bundles	$1.64	3.8%
6	Voltaic KeyMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #219	Uncommon	$3.91	0.40	1 in 3 bundles	$1.56	3.6%
7	Temple BellMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #217	Rare	$11.33	0.13	1 in 8 bundles	$1.50	3.4%
8	SilenceMain set · Nonfoil · M11 #30	Rare	$8.66	0.13	1 in 8 bundles	$1.15	2.6%
These eight together		$19.60, 44.9% of bundle EV. The other $24.01 comes from the rest of the set.

Birds of Paradise — The three rares, $30.17, $12.37 and $11.33. Each turns up about once in eight bundles.

Serra Ascendant — The three rares, $30.17, $12.37 and $11.33. Each turns up about once in eight bundles.

#1 Pyretic Ritual

M11 #153

Nonfoil

$6.52

EV $5.05 · 0.77 per bundle

#2 Serra Ascendant

M11 #28

Nonfoil

$30.17

EV $3.99 · 1 in 8 bundles

#3 Liliana's Caress

M11 #103

Nonfoil

$7.55

EV $3.02 · 1 in 3 bundles

#4 Relentless Rats

M11 #113

Nonfoil

$4.22

EV $1.69 · 1 in 3 bundles

#5 Birds of Paradise

M11 #165

Nonfoil

$12.37

EV $1.64 · 1 in 8 bundles

#6 Voltaic Key

M11 #219

Nonfoil

$3.91

EV $1.56 · 1 in 3 bundles

#7 Temple Bell

M11 #217

Nonfoil

$11.33

EV $1.50 · 1 in 8 bundles

#8 Silence

M11 #30

Nonfoil

$8.66

EV $1.15 · 1 in 8 bundles

1
Pyretic Ritual
M11 #153Nonfoil
$6.52 market · 0.77 per bundle
$5.0511.6% of EV
2
Serra Ascendant
M11 #28Nonfoil
$30.17 market · 0.13 per bundle · 1 in 8 bundles
$3.999.1% of EV
3
Liliana's Caress
M11 #103Nonfoil
$7.55 market · 0.40 per bundle · 1 in 3 bundles
$3.026.9% of EV
4
Relentless Rats
M11 #113Nonfoil
$4.22 market · 0.40 per bundle · 1 in 3 bundles
$1.693.9% of EV
5
Birds of Paradise
M11 #165Nonfoil
$12.37 market · 0.13 per bundle · 1 in 8 bundles
$1.643.8% of EV
6
Voltaic Key
M11 #219Nonfoil
$3.91 market · 0.40 per bundle · 1 in 3 bundles
$1.563.6% of EV
7
Temple Bell
M11 #217Nonfoil
$11.33 market · 0.13 per bundle · 1 in 8 bundles
$1.503.4% of EV
8
Silence
M11 #30Nonfoil
$8.66 market · 0.13 per bundle · 1 in 8 bundles
$1.152.6% of EV

These eight together$19.60, 44.9% of bundle EV

All Magic 2011 prices

Magic 2011 (M11) - Fat Pack Price History

TCGplayer market price for the sealed bundle, past 12 months, against its crack EV.

$50$100$150$200Nov 2025Feb 2026MayAugNovBundle price$125.00Crack EV$43.61Mana Pool$112.18Crack EV tracked since Oct 71Y high $125.001Y low $99.99

Mana Pool lowest listing · USD, before shipping · last observed Nov 8, 2026

Crack EV has held below bundle price for 33 days.

Now: $125.00; TCGplayer market
1-year high: $125.00; At the 1-year high
1-year low: $99.99; Today is 25.0% higher

The Magic 2011 lineup

Every Magic 2011 product we track, ranked by card value per dollar of sealed price.

Sealed screener

Crack or keep sealed

EV Notes

Verdict: Skip 0.35×

The Magic 2011 (M11) - Fat Pack sells for $125.00 and carries $43.61 in expected card value at market, a 0.35× ratio and $81.39 less than the bundle costs.

Five-tier verdictEV ratio

Crack 1.10× and up Open it.

Favored 1.00× to 1.10× Slight crack.

Neutral 0.90× to 1.00× Coin flip.

Hold 0.75× to 0.90× Keep it sealed.

Skip under 0.75× This bundle, 0.35×

Magic 2011 (M11) - Fat Pack FAQ