Is Secret Lair Drop: Festival in a Box Las Vegas 2026 Bundle Worth Opening?
VERDICT · UPDATED 2026-09-22 · 142 DAYS TRACKEDAs an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. ⓘCommission comes from the marketplace, not you — it never changes what you pay, and never changes which price we show as cheapest.
GLOSSARY What these terms mean
- EV
- Expected value — the probability-weighted average dollar value of what a sealed product contains, based on current singles prices.
- EV ratio
- Median crack EV divided by box price, shown as a multiplier (e.g. 1.10×). Above 1.00× means the modeled contents are worth more than the box; below 1.00× means the box price exceeds them.
- Crack EV
- The median simulated payout from opening one box and selling every card it produced at its current market price.
- Median crack
- The middle outcome across thousands of simulated box openings — half the simulated boxes pay out more than this, half pay out less.
- Spread
- The gap between what a vendor pays to buy a card (bid) and what it charges to sell the same card (ask).
- Bid value
- What a vendor's buylist currently pays for a card, before any fees or store credit bonus.
- Offer gap
- The percentage difference between a vendor's buylist price and its retail price for the same card — tight, normal, or wide.
- Playable
- A printing that is legal in at least one constructed format this site tracks, as opposed to a collector-only variant.
- Lane
- A liquidity grouping used to keep price moves comparable — main-set printings trade differently than foils, serialized cards, and other premium variants, so each lane is tracked on its own.
Secret Lair Drop: Festival in a Box Las Vegas 2026 Bundle box price, last 142 days: box from $277.82 to $448.40.
| DATE | MARKET | LOW | MID | HIGH ! |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | $332.68 | $319.99 | $384.55 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | $331.80 | $319.99 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | $331.80 | $319.99 | $384.55 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | $331.80 | $319.99 | $384.55 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | $331.80 | $319.99 | $384.55 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | $331.80 | $319.99 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | $331.80 | $319.99 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | $331.31 | $319.99 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | $331.16 | $325.00 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | $331.62 | $317.70 | $377.05 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | $331.62 | $317.70 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | $331.62 | $317.70 | $384.10 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | $331.62 | $317.70 | $377.05 | $800.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | $331.62 | $317.70 | $384.55 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | $331.62 | $317.70 | $384.55 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | $331.55 | $317.70 | $384.99 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | $331.44 | $325.00 | $387.00 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | $331.44 | $328.00 | $389.00 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-27 | $331.27 | $328.00 | $391.47 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-26 | $331.27 | $328.00 | $391.47 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | $331.27 | $328.00 | $387.00 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-24 | $331.27 | $328.00 | $387.00 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-23 | $331.37 | $330.00 | $391.47 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-22 | $331.37 | $330.00 | $391.47 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | $331.37 | $330.00 | $389.00 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-20 | $331.37 | $330.00 | $399.00 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-19 | $330.52 | $334.00 | $399.95 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-18 | $330.52 | $334.00 | $399.97 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-17 | $330.52 | $334.00 | $399.97 | $800.00 |
| 2026-08-16 | $330.65 | $325.00 | $387.69 | $800.00 |
About Secret Lair Drop: Festival in a Box Las Vegas 2026 Bundle
Secret Lair Drop: Festival in a Box Las Vegas 2026 Bundle currently sells for $332.68 at market, up 0.4% over 30 days and up 3.5% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $448.40 (2026-04-14); low: $277.82 (2026-05-19).
Official Wizards of the Coast pack odds mapped to each slot's eligible card pool.
TCGplayer Market Price, refreshed daily. Market reflects closed sales, not active listings.
Monte-Carlo simulation of 10,000 box opens, with pull-rate variance modeled per slot.
P25 / median / P75 from the same simulation. "Low" = a quarter of boxes open below it.
Excluded from EV. Their per-box odds are near zero and would distort the median.
142 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-09-22.