EV $1.62 · 1 in 3 bundles
Magic Origins Sealed · Bundle
Is Magic Origins - Fat Pack Worth Opening?
TCGplayer market · Nov 9, 2026 $47.20
1-year range $35.25$47.50 0.6% below the 1-year high
Value gaugeCard value per dollar of bundle price SKIP
0.35×
EV $16.50, $30.70 less card value than the bundle costs.
TCGplayer, $47.20, lowest price (opens in a new tab) Mana Pool, $54.99 (opens in a new tab) Amazon, Check price (opens in a new tab) eBay, Check price (opens in a new tab)
Affiliate links. TCG Strat may earn a commission from TCGplayer, Mana Pool and eBay. As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. Mana Pool observed Nov 9, 2026, before shipping.
The slot-by-slot breakdown is not available for this bundle yet. Its EV and verdict are unaffected.
About Magic Origins - Fat Pack
At $47.20 it trades near the top of its one-year range of $35.25 to $47.50.
Outcome rangeOne bundle
Likely range for one bundle
The middle half of modeled outcomes for a single bundle at today’s market prices. EV is the average; this is the spread around it.
Mean$16.50Equals the bundle EV
Middle half spans$13.32High end minus low end
Modeled from pull rates and market prices. Selling fees and shipping are not included.
The bounds are estimated P25 and P75 values, normal-approximation estimates rather than percentiles measured from opened bundles.
How we price a bundleMiddle half of modeled outcomes
$9.84 to $23.16
- Middle half, estimated 25th to 75th percentile
- Mean
- Bundle price
Best Pulls in Magic Origins - Fat Pack
Elemental Bond is the best pull at $4.81. Pulls are expected copies per bundle; EV is pulls times market price.
| # | Card | Rarity | Market | Pulls | Odds | EV | Share of EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elemental BondMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #174 | Uncommon | $4.81 | 0.34 | 1 in 3 bundles | $1.62 | 9.8% |
| 2 | Chandra's IgnitionMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #137 | Rare | $8.23 | 0.14 | 1 in 7 bundles | $1.18 | 7.2% |
| 3 | Tainted RemedyMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #120 | Rare | $8.05 | 0.14 | 1 in 7 bundles | $1.15 | 7.0% |
| 4 | Starfield of NyxMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #33 | Mythic | $12.08 | 0.07 | 1 in 14 bundles | $0.86 | 5.2% |
| 5 | Sword of the AnimistMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #240 | Rare | $5.52 | 0.14 | 1 in 7 bundles | $0.79 | 4.8% |
| 6 | Jace, Vryn's Prodigy // Jace, Telepath UnboundMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #60 | Mythic | $11.03 | 0.07 | 1 in 14 bundles | $0.79 | 4.8% |
| 7 | Alhammarret's ArchiveMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #221 | Mythic | $10.27 | 0.07 | 1 in 14 bundles | $0.73 | 4.4% |
| 8 | Liliana, Heretical Healer // Liliana, Defiant NecromancerMain set · Nonfoil · ORI #106 | Mythic | $7.93 | 0.07 | 1 in 14 bundles | $0.57 | 3.5% |
| These eight together | $7.69, 46.6% of bundle EV. The other $8.81 comes from the rest of the set. | ||||||
EV $1.18 · 1 in 7 bundles
EV $1.15 · 1 in 7 bundles
EV $0.86 · 1 in 14 bundles
EV $0.79 · 1 in 7 bundles
EV $0.79 · 1 in 14 bundles
EV $0.73 · 1 in 14 bundles
EV $0.57 · 1 in 14 bundles
- 1
$1.629.8% of EV
- 2
$1.187.2% of EV
- 3
$1.157.0% of EV
- 4
$0.865.2% of EV
- 5
$0.794.8% of EV
- 6
Jace, Vryn's Prodigy // Jace, Telepath Unbound
ORI #60Nonfoil
$11.03 market · 0.07 per bundle · 1 in 14 bundles
$0.794.8% of EV
- 7
$0.734.4% of EV
- 8
Liliana, Heretical Healer // Liliana, Defiant Necromancer
ORI #106Nonfoil
$7.93 market · 0.07 per bundle · 1 in 14 bundles
$0.573.5% of EV
These eight together$7.69, 46.6% of bundle EV
All Magic Origins pricesMagic Origins - Fat Pack Price History
TCGplayer market price for the sealed bundle, past 12 months, against its crack EV.
$20$40$60$80Nov 2025Feb 2026MayAugNovBundle price$47.20Crack EV$16.50Mana Pool$54.99Crack EV tracked since Oct 71Y high $47.501Y low $35.25
Mana Pool lowest listing · USD, before shipping · last observed
Crack EV has held below bundle price for 34 days.
- Now
- $47.20
- TCGplayer market
- 1-year high
- $47.50
- 0.6% above today
- 1-year low
- $35.25
- Today is 33.9% higher
The Magic Origins lineup
Every Magic Origins product we track, ranked by card value per dollar of sealed price.
Crack or keep sealed
EV Notes
Verdict: Skip 0.35×
The Magic Origins - Fat Pack sells for $47.20 and carries $16.50 in expected card value at market, a 0.35× ratio and $30.70 less than the bundle costs.
Five-tier verdictEV ratio
Crack 1.10× and up Open it.
Favored 1.00× to 1.10× Slight crack.
Neutral 0.90× to 1.00× Coin flip.
Hold 0.75× to 0.90× Keep it sealed.
Skip under 0.75× This bundle, 0.35×
Magic Origins - Fat Pack FAQ
Is Magic Origins - Fat Pack worth opening?
Pass. Mean expected value is $16.50 against a $47.20 bundle price (0.35× EV ratio), EV as of 2026-11-09.
What is the best card you can pull from Magic Origins - Fat Pack?
The top pull by value is Elemental Bond (about $4.81), with roughly a 33.8% chance per bundle.
Details and daily prices
Magic Origins - Fat Pack currently sells for $47.20 at market, down 0.4% over 30 days and up 11.1% over 90 days. All-time tracked high: $47.50 (2026-10-16); low: $34.84 (2025-08-27).
1883 daily snapshots. Last update 2026-11-09.
Daily prices, last 30 snapshots
| Date | Market | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | $47.20 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-08 | $47.20 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-07 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-06 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-05 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $47.08 | $43.00 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-30 | $46.97 | $43.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-29 | $46.97 | $43.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-28 | $46.97 | $48.49 | $64.95 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-27 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-26 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-25 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-24 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-18 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-17 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $47.50 | $38.00 | $64.94 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $47.41 | $38.00 | $57.47 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $47.41 | $38.00 | $57.47 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $47.41 | $38.00 | $57.47 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $47.41 | $38.00 | $52.49 | $78.19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $47.41 | $38.00 | $52.49 | $78.19 |