Theros Sealed · Bundle

Is Theros - Fat Pack Worth Opening?

TherosTHS

TCGplayer market · Nov 9, 2026 $93.75

1-year range $80.43$94.77 1.1% below the 1-year high

Value gaugeCard value per dollar of bundle price SKIP

0.25×

EV $23.63, $70.12 less card value than the bundle costs.

TCGplayer, $93.75, lowest price (opens in a new tab) Mana Pool, $97.49 (opens in a new tab) Amazon, Check price (opens in a new tab) eBay, Check price (opens in a new tab)

Affiliate links. TCG Strat may earn a commission from TCGplayer, Mana Pool and eBay. As an Amazon Associate we may earn from qualifying purchases. Mana Pool observed Nov 9, 2026, before shipping.

The slot-by-slot breakdown is not available for this bundle yet. Its EV and verdict are unaffected.

About Theros - Fat Pack

At $93.75 it trades near the top of its one-year range of $80.43 to $94.77.

Outcome rangeOne bundle

Likely range for one bundle

The middle half of modeled outcomes for a single bundle at today’s market prices. EV is the average; this is the spread around it.

Mean$23.63Equals the bundle EV

Middle half spans$33.17High end minus low end

Modeled from pull rates and market prices. Selling fees and shipping are not included.

The bounds are estimated P25 and P75 values, normal-approximation estimates rather than percentiles measured from opened bundles.

How we price a bundle

Middle half of modeled outcomes

$7.04 to $40.21

Middle half, estimated 25th to 75th percentile
Mean
Bundle price

Best Pulls in Theros - Fat Pack

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx is the best pull at $47.36. Pulls are expected copies per bundle; EV is pulls times market price.

All Theros prices

#	Card	Rarity	Market	Pulls	Odds	EV	Share of EV
1	Nykthos, Shrine to NyxMain set · Nonfoil · THS #223	Rare	$47.36	0.15	1 in 7 bundles	$7.05	29.8%
2	Swan SongMain set · Nonfoil · THS #65	Rare	$12.46	0.15	1 in 7 bundles	$1.85	7.8%
3	Purphoros, God of the ForgeMain set · Nonfoil · THS #135	Mythic	$24.28	0.07	1 in 13 bundles	$1.81	7.7%
4	Whip of ErebosMain set · Nonfoil · THS #110	Rare	$9.54	0.15	1 in 7 bundles	$1.42	6.0%
5	ThoughtseizeMain set · Nonfoil · THS #107	Rare	$7.02	0.15	1 in 7 bundles	$1.04	4.4%
6	Gray Merchant of AsphodelMain set · Nonfoil · THS #89	Common	$1.07	0.87		$0.93	3.9%
7	Nykthos, Shrine to NyxMain set · Foil · THS #223	Rare	$171.02	0.01	1 in 199 bundles	$0.86	3.6%
8	Erebos, God of the DeadMain set · Nonfoil · THS #85	Mythic	$10.91	0.07	1 in 13 bundles	$0.81	3.4%
These eight together		$15.77, 66.7% of bundle EV. The other $7.86 comes from the rest of the set.

#1 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

THS #223

Nonfoil

$47.36

EV $7.05 · 1 in 7 bundles

#2 Swan Song

THS #65

Nonfoil

$12.46

EV $1.85 · 1 in 7 bundles

#3 Purphoros, God of the Forge

THS #135

Nonfoil

$24.28

EV $1.81 · 1 in 13 bundles

#4 Whip of Erebos

THS #110

Nonfoil

$9.54

EV $1.42 · 1 in 7 bundles

#5 Thoughtseize

THS #107

Nonfoil

$7.02

EV $1.04 · 1 in 7 bundles

#6 Gray Merchant of Asphodel

THS #89

Nonfoil

$1.07

EV $0.93 · 0.87 per bundle

#7 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

THS #223

Foil

$171.02

EV $0.86 · 1 in 199 bundles

#8 Erebos, God of the Dead

THS #85

Nonfoil

$10.91

EV $0.81 · 1 in 13 bundles

1
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
THS #223Nonfoil
$47.36 market · 0.15 per bundle · 1 in 7 bundles
$7.0529.8% of EV
2
Swan Song
THS #65Nonfoil
$12.46 market · 0.15 per bundle · 1 in 7 bundles
$1.857.8% of EV
3
Purphoros, God of the Forge
THS #135Nonfoil
$24.28 market · 0.07 per bundle · 1 in 13 bundles
$1.817.7% of EV
4
Whip of Erebos
THS #110Nonfoil
$9.54 market · 0.15 per bundle · 1 in 7 bundles
$1.426.0% of EV
5
Thoughtseize
THS #107Nonfoil
$7.02 market · 0.15 per bundle · 1 in 7 bundles
$1.044.4% of EV
6
Gray Merchant of Asphodel
THS #89Nonfoil
$1.07 market · 0.87 per bundle
$0.933.9% of EV
7
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
THS #223Foil
$171.02 market · 0.01 per bundle · 1 in 199 bundles
$0.863.6% of EV
8
Erebos, God of the Dead
THS #85Nonfoil
$10.91 market · 0.07 per bundle · 1 in 13 bundles
$0.813.4% of EV

These eight together$15.77, 66.7% of bundle EV

All Theros prices

Theros - Fat Pack Price History

TCGplayer market price for the sealed bundle, past 12 months, against its crack EV.

$50$100Nov 2025Feb 2026MayAugNovBundle price$93.75Crack EV$23.63Mana Pool$97.49Crack EV tracked since Oct 71Y high $94.771Y low $80.43

Mana Pool lowest listing · USD, before shipping · last observed Nov 9, 2026

Crack EV has held below bundle price for 34 days.

Now: $93.75; TCGplayer market
1-year high: $94.77; 1.1% above today
1-year low: $80.43; Today is 16.6% higher

The Theros lineup

Every Theros product we track, ranked by card value per dollar of sealed price.

Sealed screener

Crack or keep sealed

EV Notes

Verdict: Skip 0.25×

The Theros - Fat Pack sells for $93.75 and carries $23.63 in expected card value at market, a 0.25× ratio and $70.12 less than the bundle costs.

Five-tier verdictEV ratio

Crack 1.10× and up Open it.

Favored 1.00× to 1.10× Slight crack.

Neutral 0.90× to 1.00× Coin flip.

Hold 0.75× to 0.90× Keep it sealed.

Skip under 0.75× This bundle, 0.25×

Theros - Fat Pack FAQ